Category: PushEvs

December saw France’s plug-in electric vehicles grow to take 25.0% share of the auto market, up fractionally from 24.4% a year ago. Full electrics grew at a decent rate, but plugin hybrids fell. Overall auto volumes for the month were flat year on year, but full year 2022 volumes were down almost 8% on 2021. The Dacia Spring was December’s bestselling BEV.

 

 

December’s overall plugin result of 25.0% comprised 15.8% full battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and 9.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). This is barely changed from their respective shares of 14.6%, and 9.8%, in December 2021.

For 2022 as a whole, plugins accumulated a 21.6% share of auto sales, with BEVs taking 13.3%, and PHEVs, 8.3%. This is a modest overall growth from 2021’s corresponding share of 18.3% plugins, comprising 9.8% BEV, and 8.5% PHEV. BEVs’ annual growth in share is visible but modest, at 1.36x. In the hypothetical case where this rate sustains, BEVs would pass 50% share of the market by early 2027.

In volume terms, the picture was more subdued, since the wider context is that the 2022 overall French auto market in fact shrank by some 8% compared to 2021. Against this background, BEVs’ 203,121 total sales represented YoY volume growth of 25.3% (from 162,106 units).

The bigger picture is that France remains under-supplied with BEVs, and the same is true across Europe as whole. Different national markets may get allocation priority at different times. Rarely do growth rates accurately reflect consumer preferences, since overall supplies remain limited.

For example, we have just seen Norway receive relatively huge allocations from the pool of BEV supply in November and December, to boost sales ahead of vehicle tax increases in 2023. So, whilst France was allocated 45,290 BEV units across November and December, Norway received 49,628 units. This despite the French auto market being typically roughly 10x the size that of Norway, and typical monthly French BEV volumes being 2x those of Norway.

In short — given the inherently limited overall pool of supply — depending on shifting allocation priorities, some national markets will sometimes have boosted growth rates, and others suppressed growth rates. Certainly in the past few months of this year France has not received high priority, and thus its headline growth rates look a bit subdued, compared to neighbours like Norway, Sweden, or Germany.

In terms of overall powertrain evolution, plugins’ steady growth, combined with growth of plugless hybrids also, meant that traditional combustion-only powertrains remained under 50% of new sales for the second month in a row.

 

 

Bestselling BEVs

The Dacia Spring was December’s top selling BEV in France, bookending the year, following its previous win in January. The Tesla Model 3 took runner up spot, with the Renault Megane taking 3rd, just ahead of the Tesla Model Y.

 

 

The new MG4 took 10th place, in only its 3rd month of volume deliveries. Expect it to climb higher still in the coming months.  The Volkswagen ID.3 also had a relatively strong December, over 3x its recent monthly volumes.

We don’t yet have enough depth of monthly model data to detect quietly emerging newcomers deep down the rankings, but we will keep an eye out for new entrants to the top 10 or top 20.

Beyond December’s results, let’s look at the trailing 3 month model performances:

 

 

There are no great surprises in the top 10. It is good to see the VW ID.3 reclaim some position, thanks to almost three quarters of its volume coming in the second half of the year. The Renault Zoe had the opposite fate, with two thirds of its annual volume coming in H1, and dwindling performance since, meaning it dropped out of the top 10 in the last 3 months.

On that note, let’s look at the full year picture and see what’s changed since a year ago:

 

 

The Peugeot e-208 has climbed from last year’s #3, to #1, and the Dacia Spring from #4 to #2. The Tesla Model 3 has fallen from #1 to #3, and Renault Zoe has slid more dramatically from #2 to #7.

Other positions are mostly a shuffle, except that two newer BEVs have entered the top 10, the Model Y, from #21 to #8, and most impressively, the homegrown Renault Megane. The new local hero took 2022’s overall #4 rank, despite having only started volume deliveries in May. As the previous charts demonstrate, the Megane is now often challenging for the monthly and quarterly top spot, and looks firmly set to take the overall title in 2023.

 

Outlook

The French auto market shrank by around 8% in 2022 compared to 2021, to ~1,529,000 units. This is a long way down from its typical size of around 2,500,000 annual units over the previous decade.

The PFA’s communications head, François Roudier, in an interview with AFP, talked of “a succession of crises… semiconductor crisis, the war in Ukraine, difficulties in delivering vehicles due to a lack of drivers, an increase in the cost of materials, and a fuel too expensive.” (machine translation)

Obviously price inflation of fuel and energy in Europe, and other materials, are related to the war in Ukraine also, and the sanctions on imports from Russia. The prospects for the French auto industry 2023 are hardly any different, with no immediate end in sight to the conflict.

There is no lack of demand for BEVs in France, though supply will continue to be limited for the foreseeable future. Other things being equal, we can expect continuing slow but steady progress of the EV transition in France, but not the dramatic growth rate that we saw in 2020 and 2021.

What are your thoughts on France’s auto industry and EV transition? Please share your perspective in the comments below.

The post EVs in France reach record market share first appeared on 🔋PushEVs.

Norway’s auto market saw plugin EV volume explode to take 87.6% share in December, with huge numbers of BEVs registered, and overall auto volumes double those of seasonal norms. The freak volume in December 2022 resulted from one-off pull-forward effects ahead of new policies and auto taxes applying from 2023 onwards.

BEVs saw pull-forward sales, with volume around 2.5x their previous monthly record, ahead of new weight taxes, and VAT taxes. Petrol vehicles also saw a relative sales surge ahead of increased emissions taxes. Several interesting new BEV models joined the market, and the Tesla Model Y was the overall best seller.

 

 

December’s combined plugin share of 87.6% was completely dominated by full electrics (BEVs), taking 82.8% share. Plugin hybrids (PHEVs) took just 4.8% share, their lowest for many years. The respective shares a year ago were 67.1% and 22.9%.

PHEV’s relatively low share was not due to their fall in volume, rather that the volume of BEVs and petrol vehicles were much higher than usual. December’s overall auto market volume of 39,497 units was almost double the December volume of 2021 and 2020 (both around 20,570 units), and 2.5x times the average monthly volume seen in 2022. BEVs alone sold 32.713 units, over twice their previous record volume. Petrol vehicle volumes were 4x to 5x recent seasonal norms.  The reason for the high volume of these two powertrains was pull-forward sales, ahead of looming tax changes in January 2023.

 

Pull forward ahead of tax changes

There are many separate vehicle tax categories in Norway, from simple sales taxes (VAT), to NOx tax, CO2 tax, weight tax, and more. BEVs have previously been exempt from all of these taxes, but 2023 will introduce two new taxes that apply to BEVs for the first time. The first is a weight tax of 12.5 NOK for every kg of vehicle weight above 500 kg. So a relatively lightweight 1,700 kg BEV faces an additional cost of 15,000 NOK (about €1,410) from 1st January 2023. For a heavy BEV of 2,700 kg, it amounts to an addition of 27,500 NOK (€2,590).

Furthermore, from 1st of January, VAT is being applied for the portion of a BEV’s price that exceeds a 500,000 NOK (~ €47,000) threshold. Most of Norway’s top 10 bestselling BEVs are priced above this threshold (though a few have base prices that start just below it). The VAT rate is 25%, so e.g. a Tesla Model Y performance priced at 600,000 NOK will be additionally subject to VAT of 25% on the 100,000 NOK above the 500,000 threshold, which comes to 25,000 NOK (€2,350). For a BEV priced around 700,000 NOK (e.g. the Mercedes EQC), the VAT amounts to 50,000 NOK (€4,700).

Adding together the new weight tax, and the new VAT tax, from 1st of January, a Tesla Model Y Performance faces additional cost of around €1,850 (for weight) plus €2,350 (for VAT). So €4,100 more overall, compared to its cost in December. For a Mercedes EQC, the added cost of these two new taxes is around €7,050.

Even for a smaller, more modestly priced BEV like the Volkswagen ID.3 Pro Life (58 kWh), although it is below the VAT threshold, the weight tax still amounts to a cost increase to the buyer of around €1,530. Norway’s popular BEVs (Tesla Model Y, VW ID.4, Skoda Enyaq, Volvo XC40, etc.) are now seeing increased costs in the range of €2,500 to €4,000.

Since consumers naturally wanted to try to avoid these effective cost increases from January 1st, there was a huge surge of pull-forward sales in December (and to a lesser extent in November), leading to the record BEV volumes.

Furthermore, there are also increased taxes for combustion vehicles, most notably related to CO2 emissions. These also amount to effective increases in cost of several thousand Euros per vehicle, especially for larger vehicles and/or those with bigger engines. Petrol vehicles are particularly affected, thus they also saw a rush of pull-forward sales, before the January 1st policy change, gaining 4x or 5x their typical volumes.

 

 

The isolated powertrain volume chart below illustrates the abnormal volumes of December’s BEVs, and petrol vehicles. We can expect patterns to return closer to the recent balance in a few months from now. January and February will likely show some negative rebound effects for BEVs and petrols:

 

 

Norway’s bestsellers

Tesla was able to capitalise on the surge in BEV demand, supplying a record 4,518 Model Y units in December. This is still below the 5,315 monthly volume record of the Tesla Model 3, set at its debut in March 2019.

The Volkswagen ID.4, and Volvo XC40, took the #2 and #3 spots, far off from the Model Y, but still well above their typical monthly volumes.

 

 

In terms of significant changes, the Mercedes EQC claimed its highest ever ranking, thanks to over 4x its more typical monthly volumes, due to the looming tax changes noted above. Likewise, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, most variants of which are around 600,000 NOK, saw a 5.5x jump in volume, gaining 10th spot.

Similar magnitudes of pull-forward amplification were seen for the BMW iX, and i4, the Mercedes EQA, and EQE, the Hongqi E-HS8, and the Porsche Taycan.

In terms of new arrivals, the most important right now is the new BYD Atto 3, which brings a fresh value proposition to the compact/mid SUV segment. From a handful of initial deliveries in November, it jumped up to 576 units in December, ranking 17th for the month. If it does well overall in Europe (which it already looks like doing), BYD will certainly later make available the smaller Dolphin hatchback also, which will be even more of a game changer.

Other new BEVs appearing in December included the Voyah Free, straight in at 385 units. The Free is a large SUV, similar in size to the Nio ES8, or BYD Tang, with premium features, for a competitive price.

At much smaller volumes, the new DFK Seres 3 launched in Norway, as did the new JAC ES4. Both are compact/mid SUVs with decent value.

The new BYD Han, a premium full sized sedan, scored decent volumes in just its second month on sale, with 294 units. Meanwhile, a familiar face in the same segment (though much higher priced) the Tesla Model S, finally made a return to Norway, after a two year absence (as did its sibling the Model X). Both scored 382 units in December.

Now that there is a lot more competition in the premium full sized market, it will be interesting to see how well the two big Teslas succeed in their European renaissance. Once long-standing orders have been fulfilled, will they sustain volume anywhere near their previous 300-400 units per month? With much higher starting prices, plus the new VAT rates, it seems unlikely, but let’s wait and see.

Let’s now step back and look at the trailing 3-month rankings:

 

 

Sales of the larger, heavier models, priced above 500,000 NOK, have been juiced in November and December by the pull-forward discussed above. As this is a one-off situation, there’s not much point in over-analysing the temporary changes in ranking that have resulted. Let’s return to this in the Spring when things have settled down again.

In terms of long-term favourites, the Tesla Model Y, Volkswagen ID.4, and Skoda Enyaq, continue to perform strongly.

The Volvo XC40 has stepped up in the past few months, taking 3rd in the above rankings. It’s good to see the Volvo and Polestar brands get back to strength in Norway, as they have in neighbouring Sweden. Let’s see if they can sustain this renewed resolve over an extended period.

 

What has changed since a year ago?

Below are Norway’s top 10 favourite BEVs for the full year 2022:

 

 

What has changed since a year ago? The Tesla Model 3, which was #1 in 2021, has fallen away completely, now at #16.

The Nissan Leaf has fallen from #6 to #15.

The BMW iX has come from nowhere to take #5 spot, likewise its sibling i4 has taken #11, just outside the above list.

Other YoY changes are less dramatic, more of a shuffling of places.

Will 2023 see more market innovation, and the arrival of disruptive new BEV models? We will have to wait and see.

 

Outlook

The policy changes described at length above have shaped the last couple of months of the Norwegian auto market, but are not indicative of longer term trends.

In the bigger picture, every powertrain other than BEVs is now in decline, even PHEVs.

The task for converting the remaining 10% to 15% of auto sales over to BEV requires a variety of more affordable models, better charging infrastructure, and a few remaining un-met vehicle niches to be filled. 2023 will make progress in this regard, but it remains to be seen how much.

I expect it will be another couple of years before there is a broad enough variety of affordable BEV models to get consistently above 95% BEV share.

What are your thoughts on Norway’s pathway along the EV transition? What kinds of as yet unmet niches still need to be filled? Please let us know in the comment below.

The post EV sales in Norway explode ahead of policy changes first appeared on 🔋PushEVs.

Sweden’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicle share continue to grow strongly in December, reaching a record 74.6%, up from 60.7% year on year. Full electrics alone took a record 51.3% share of the market.

Overall, auto volume for the month was up 28% year on year, but still 18% down from December 2019. Full year 2022 saw auto volumes fall by 4% compared to 2021, and fall by over 19% compared to 2019. December’s bestselling BEV was the Volvo XC40. The full year bestseller was the Volkswagen ID.4.

 

 

December’s combined plugin share of 74.6% comprised 51.3% full battery electrics (BEVs), and 23.3% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). Their respective results a year ago were 36.4%, and 24.3%.

Full year 2022 plugin share stood at 56.1%, up from 45.0% in full year 2021. BEVs alone gained 33.0% share of 2022’s sales, up dramatically from 19.1% last year.

December’s volume of BEV sales grew by 81% YoY, to a record 18,154 units. Full year 2022 BEV volume was 94,984 units, YoY growth of 65.3%. PHEV 2022 volume was 66,577 units, a YoY fall of 14.5%.

Combustion-only powertrains’ (petrol and diesel) share in December fell to a record low of 18.7%, compared to 32.3% in December 2021.  Their combined volume was 6,610 units.

 

 

Sweden’s Best Selling BEVs

December saw the Volvo XC40 take the #1 spot for the 3rd month in a row. The previous regular favourite, the Volkswagen ID.4, once again had to settle for second place. Rounding out the top three was another Volvo, the C40. It’s great to see Sweden’s own local auto brand coming back to strength in the country’s BEV transition. Sister brand, Polestar, took #9 spot for the month.

 

 

December’s most notable performances came from the MG Marvel R, the Seat Cupra Born, and the new BYD Atto 3. The MG (#7) and Cupra (#6) climbed higher than any previous month. The BYD Atto 3 came roaring in to a remarkable #5 (and 980 units), having only first appeared in Sweden just last month (83 units). The BYD is a great value package, will see insatiable demand in Sweden, and – if delivery volumes can keep up – may be challenging for the top 3 in 2023.

Lower down the rankings, the new MG4 doubled its MoM deliveries in December, to 199 units. The MG4 is amongst the most affordable “fully competent” BEVs available, so it’s good to see the supply steadily growing.

The new Ora Funky Cat saw its first month of deliveries, with 146 units, and – though starting from a not-super-affordable €37k – is an interesting new offering in the compact premium/tech segment.

The new Aiways U5 mid-sized SUV also saw its first discernible volume (79 units). It is a similar form factor to, and slightly larger than, the popular Volkswagen ID.4, with seemingly more tech/premium bells and whistles, whilst significantly undercutting the VW on starting price (by >20%).

The base U5’s disadvantage compared to the base ID.4 is a smaller battery (60 kWh vs 77 kWh) and thus lower range (WLPT 410 km vs. 506 km) and slightly slower charging. But its powertrain specs will still be acceptable for many families, especially at the competitive price point.

Tesla’s Models S and X both finally made a reappearance in December, after a two year absence. With much more competition in the high priced premium segments now than when they were previously on sale, their advantage remains relatively short delivery times of just two or three months, compared to 6 to 12 months (or more) for many other BEVs.

Let’s now smooth out the monthly shipping variations and look at the 3-month picture:

 

Other than the recovery of the Volvo and Polestar models, there are no other big surprises in the top 10. Notice that the BYD Atto 3 has already achieved 12th spot from effectively just a single month of volume deliveries. Here’s a summary of the major movements compared to the rankings 3 months earlier:

 

• Volvo XC40 up from 9th to 1st
• Volvo C40 up from 20th to 3rd
• Polestar 2 up from 11th to 5th
• MG Marvel R up from 16th to 10th
• Renault Megane up from 33rd to 16th

 

Here are the models that fell in ranking:

• Tesla Model 3 fell from 7th to 37th
• Skoda Enyaq fell from 2nd to 7th
• MG ZS fell from 3rd to 19th
• MG5 fell from 10th to 18th
• BMW i3 fell from 13th to 55th

 

I’m not sure what’s happening with the Tesla Model 3. Orders placed today (for any variant) are supposed to deliver in less than 3 months, so it doesn’t look like there is an issue with limited supply for Sweden. Perhaps Swedish auto buyers are simply moving away from the low-slung sedan form factor (the above tables of best sellers certainly suggests so). All of the other vehicles in the above lists have more practical fully opening tail-gates, rather than the Model 3’s smaller rear aperture.

With regard to the full year 2022 model performances, below are the top 10 best selling BEVs. Note that – since BEV are a rapidly developing market, with new and more affordable models appearing all the time (BYD Atto 3, etc.) – we should likely regard the latest 3-month rankings (above) as much more indicative of future success, than the full year rankings:

 

 

Outlook

Sweden’s plugin incentive landscape has changed a couple of times over the course of 2022. Since the most dramatic recent (and out-of-the-blue) change on November 8th, the current situation is that there are no longer any “carrot” incentives (the “climate bonus”) for newly ordered plugin vehicles (neither PHEV nor BEV).

Existing yet-to-be fulfilled orders that were placed before November 8th will be grandfathered in, and still get the prior bonus payment (up to roughly €4,000 per vehicle) once finally delivered and registered for road use. With long delivery times for BEVs, in many cases the actual registration of these early November 2022 orders may happen as late as autumn 2023.

However, the “stick” side of the bonus-malus policy remains in place, since new ICE vehicles are still subject to higher road tax for the first 3 years after registration, whereas EVs (now classified as vehicles with emissions below 30g of CO2/km) pay no road tax (for now at least). The amount of ICE road tax is linked to emissions rating (CO2/km), and can amount to thousands of euros per year for the most inefficient autos.

This being the case, there is still effectively an economic policy incentive for consumers to avoid ICE vehicles, and instead choose the most efficient plugins (mostly BEVs), on top of the long term energy cost savings for consumer who drive plugins rather than ICE vehicles.

We won’t have a clear picture of how the cancellation of the bonus will shape continuing plugin demand until next summer/autumn. Sweden’s transition to plugins will doubtless continue over the long run, though there may be some short-to-mid-term discontinuities.

Perhaps by autumn 2023 even more affordable BEVs, like the BYD Dolphin, will be starting to be offered in the Swedish market, and be able to compete on overall value with ICE vehicles in their own right.

What are your thoughts on the prospects for Sweden’s EV transition in the years ahead? Please share your perspective in the comments section.

The post Plugin EVs reached a new record market share in Sweden first appeared on 🔋PushEVs.