Author: Dr. Maximilian Holland

June saw plugin EVs at 24.6% share in Germany, down from 26.0% year on year. Full electrics grew their share at a decent rate, up from 14.4% to 18.9%, the share of plugin hybrids halved, however, after incentives were cut. Overall auto volume was 280,047 units, up 24.7% YoY, still far down on the pre-2020 norm (roughly 330,000). The Tesla Model Y was the best selling BEV in June, and third best seller of any auto.

With combined plugin EVs at 24.6% share in June, full electrics (BEVs) contributed 18.9%, and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) contributed 5.7%. These compare with like figures of 26.0%, 14.4%, and 11.7%, a year ago.

Recall that Germany entirely cut the ecobonus for PHEVs from January 1st this year, and their fall in share since then was fully expected. Their decent 11.2% share of the market in H1 2022 has halved, to 5.66% in H1 2023.

BEVs also took a moderate trim to their incentives from January 1st, which led to relatively slow sales at the start of this year. Q1 volume growth for BEVs was just 13.2%.

As time goes on, and the memory of the “good old days” of more generous incentives fades, BEVs have returned close to their usual growth trajectory. Q2 volume growth was 50.1%.

Whereas PHEVs previously had almost as much market share as BEVs (see graph below) in Germany, they have now slipped to around one third that of BEVs. This is more in line with the plugin weightings in the other large European markets of France and the UK.

Unfortunately, these temporary Eddie-currents and adjustments mean that Q1 didn’t see the share of combustion-only vehicles shrinking at all. The past two months of May and June have shown signs of returning to trend however.

As the plugin market continues to settle down in the coming months, we can fully expect the recent patterns of the EV transition will resume. Over 50% YoY BEV volume growth in Q2 sends a strong signal.

Best selling BEVs in June

The Tesla Model Y was the best selling BEV in June (6,098 units), and third best selling of any vehicle in Germany. Only the Volkswagen Golf (7,019 units) and Tiguan (6,329) sold more.

Most of the Model Y units are now coming from local production in Berlin-Brandenburg. We know that weekly production passed 4,000 units in late March, and is presumably closer to 5,000 units by now. Tesla will likely give a capacity update in their Q2 results discussion on July 19th.

Not far behind Tesla in the June BEV rankings were the Volkswagen ID.4/ID.5 in second place, and with the Fiat 500 a long way back in third.

This is the best monthly performance YTD from the Fiat 500, 70% higher volume than its recent average, reclaiming the kinds of performance that it was achieving in Germany throughout much of 2022.

Further down, in 13th place, the Opel Mokka is experiencing its own similar renaissance (volume 69% above recent averages). This has been helped by the spring refresh which has effectively given it a very welcome 20% boost to range.

Other relatively strong performances were shown by the Renault Megane, the Dacia Spring, and the Smart “#1”. The Smart saw its highest ever monthly volumes at 899 units, not far off doubling its previous high just last month.

In terms of newcomers, the Aiways U5 made its German debut in June, albeit with a modest 15 initial units. It may just be testing the waters for now, as its sibling, the U6, did a few months ago.

The new Honda “e:Ny1” (let us know what you think of this name in the comments) also made its debut, with just 5 units. This is Honda’s first all-round competent BEV (412 km WLTP rating), though with fairly weak charging speed (46 minutes 10% to 80%), with low peak.  Perhaps Honda is being initially cautious until it has some data, and may unlock higher power charging later, as some other BEV brands have done. Its starting price is around €48,000. Presumably any Honda loyalists that may exist in Germany will want to check it out, but it will not attract large interest unless more charging power is unlocked.

The Lucid Air made its first volume deliveries, with 33 units in June (from just one or two scattered units previously). The new Opel Astra also saw its first decent volume, with 215 units (up from previous high of 42 units in March). The Nio ET7 saw a similar step up, though to a more modest 99 units in June.

Let’s now turn to the 3-month perspective:

In Q2, the race between the Tesla Model Y and Volkswagen ID.4/ID.5 was very close, and both were well ahead of other BEVs. The Tesla was in fact 24% down in volume over Q1, presumably due to some country supply shuffling. The Volkswagen was 71% up in volume over Q1.

The significant climbers in the top 20 were the Mercedes EQA (up 7 spots to #7), the BMW iX1 (up 7 spots to #11), and the BMW i4 (up 11 spots to #14).  Let’s see if the premium local brands can maintain these volumes of their most affordable BEVs.

Let’s also give a shout out to the Opel siblings, the Mokka and Corsa, which — thanks to the upgraded battery and efficiency — are both now in the 400+ km club for rated range. Both have climbed 9 spots back into the top 20.

Now we can have a quick look at manufacturing group performance:

Over the past 3 months Volkswagen Group’s lead has extended. It previously had around 29% of the BEV market, and now has 30%.

Tesla has fallen from 2nd to 3rd, dropping from 22% share to just under 13% share, as its volume dropped by 24%. That was a relative tumble in a BEV market that grew by 33% over the period. Tesla’s volume dip is likely a result of regional allocation shuffling rather than any inherent lack of demand for Tesla in Germany. Tesla’s Europe-wide share hasn’t changed much this year.

Stellantis has seen remarkable growth recently in Germany stepping up from 4th into 2nd place, and from 8.6% share to almost 13% share, with 95% volume growth from Q1 to Q2.

Mercedes dropped down a spot from 3rd to 4th, though its share increased fractionally, now at around 11.7%. Its volume growth was just ahead of the overall market, at almost 36%.

The other positions were largely unchanged.

 

Outlook

Germany’s economy is not in a good place, with GDP contracting by 0.5% in Q1 2023, the worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis (putting aside Covid disruptions). A big part of the problem is high inflation — affecting energy prices for industry, and all prices for consumers — as well as high interest rates. Inflation was at 6.4% in June, up from 6.1% in May.

As for general business confidence, the latest IFO survey for June finds the lowest rates since December. Confidence was down from May, both in terms of current assessments, and in future expectations.

Specific to the German auto industry (the country’s largest employer), IFO finds that auto manufacturers’ assessment of their current situation improved over May, though automotive suppliers’ assessment was down from May. As a whole, the auto industry’s future expectations bleakened, falling for the fifth month in a row, coming close to 2008 levels.

To attempt to balance the books, auto makers are looking to raise prices, IFO director Oliver Falck reports, “these price increases will mainly affect the premium segment and electric vehicles”.

Sometimes in the comments we find the idea that a weak German auto industry is somehow “a good thing” for the EV transition, whatever the impact on the welfare of working families. Even by its own twisted logic, the increased pricing of electric vehicles shows this to be a false perspective. Change needs investment, and investment is nurtured by conditions of economic stability and predictability.

What are your thoughts on the German auto market’s transition to EVs? Jump in to the conversation in the comments below.

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June saw plugin EVs take 25.1% of the UK auto market, up from 21.6% year on year. Both full electrics and plugin hybrids grew volume at a healthy clip. Overall auto volume was 177,266 units, up some 26% YoY, but still well below pre-2020 norms. The Tesla Model Y was the UK’s bestselling vehicle in June.

June’s combined plugin result of 25.1% comprised 17.9% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These figures compare with 21.6%, 16.1%, and 5.5% in June 2022. Both categories of plugins have grown share at a moderate rate YoY, though PHEVs have done a bit better proportionately.

Looking at unit volumes, BEVs grew a healthy 39.4% YoY, to 31,700 units. PHEVs grew volume by a strong 65.5%, to 12,770 units.

Combined combustion-only share was down to a near record low (43.2%, only December ’22 was lower). Diesel-only vehicles fell in volume by 22.2% YoY, to 6,221 units, and took just 3.5% share of the market.

When will diesel-only vehicles run out of road in the UK? Mild-hybrid diesel vehicles — with 48 volt batteries enabling regenerative-braking, and giving modest torque assistance — are now eating the lunch of diesel-only vehicles. Their sales were typically less than half those of diesel-only vehicles, as recently as 18 months ago, but now they are surpassing them.

Since diesel-only powertrains were anyway not usually sold at the very lowest vehicle price points, the modest extra cost of a mild-hybrid system can be swallowed more easily than it can in the least expensive petrol vehicles. The long-term fuel savings for the customer, and fleet emissions reductions for the manufacturer, make bolting-on a mild-hybrid system apparently economically worthwhile for most former-diesels, for now at least. We can expect mild-hybrid diesels to takeover almost completely from diesel-only powertrains in the next couple of years, give-or-take perhaps a tiny residual fraction of the market (under 1%).

Note that even when we combine the sales of these two diesel-variant powertrains, together they are still declining in volume over time. Year to date 2023, mild-hybrid diesel volume was static compared to the same period last year, while diesel-only volume fell. Combined, they lost 10.2% volume YoY, in the context of a growing overall auto market.

The bottom line is that diesels of all kinds are on the way out, and mild-hybrids — the lowest rung of “electrification” — are just a temporary stop-gap to slow the decline. In time, almost all passenger vehicles in the UK will be plugins, and ultimately, BEVs.

Best selling BEV brands

Tesla was yet again the best selling BEV brand in the UK in June, with around 23.5% of BEV sales, led by the Tesla Model Y. In fact, the Model Y was the UK’s overall bestselling vehicle in June.

In second place was MG Motor, with the MG4 being the second highest selling BEV model in the UK. In third place was Volkswagen brand, with the ID models.

There were no dramatic changes in the brand rankings compared to last month, just some minor shuffling of places.

The Tesla Model Y was both June’s overall best selling vehicle (5,539 units), and the 4th best selling of the year to date, with 19,551 units.

Let’s have a quick look at the brands’ 3-month performance:

In the 3 month view, as expected, Tesla still leads by a large margin, from MG Motor, and Volkswagen.

There are few major changes in the top ranks. One stand-out is Vauxhall (Opel), whose volumes in Q2 doubled over Q1, and the brand climbed from 10th spot, to 5th spot, as a result. Apparently their growth is heavily thanks to the updated Mokka, which has gained a larger battery and much improved efficiency (plus a bit more power). These combine to give around 20% more rated range on the WLTP cycle (now “252 miles”), a useful jump which now makes the Mokka a more viable option for a large portion of UK families.

 

Outlook

Despite YoY growth in auto sales, most of which is down to plugin growth, the broader UK economy remains weak. Inflation is static (and high) at 8.7%, whilst headline GDP growth has fallen to 0.2%. Real earnings (taking inflation into account) are falling, putting a squeeze on consumer spending, not helped by rising interest rates. The UK auto industry body, the SMMT, refers to this as “a gloomy economic landscape”.

The SMMT is also calling for the UK government to even the playing field for VAT rates on electricity for public charging, which is currently 20%, compared to a 5% rate on domestic electricity for those able to charge at home.

Meanwhile, the UK government consulted over the past 12 months or so on a proposed zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate which will require that a certain proportion of brand sales will have to be BEVs (similar to California and China ZEV schemes). There is some wriggle room for trading ZEV credits between brands, and within industry pools, and some amplified credits for certain vehicle classes, but overall this mandate will create a backstop for the rate of the EV transition in the coming years.

At the end of March 2023, the outcome of the ZEV consultation was published. The ZEV proportion for 2024 is set at 22%, and then rising by 5% annually until 2027 (38%). Thereafter, the ZEV proportion increases more steeply, by 16% per year until 2030 (80%). After that it will increase more gently (the top of the s-curve) by 4% per year, aiming for 100% by 2035.

UK car buyers are aware that plugins still offer significant running cost advantages over ICE vehicles, and the demand is there. If the availability of compelling-and-competent BEVs, particularly in more affordable vehicle classes (below £20,000), increases in the coming couple of years, the transition rate specified by the ZEV mandate will likely be comfortably exceeded. The mandate is simply there to make sure that the legacy auto manufacturers don’t drag their feet, and to set a predictable, fair, and level playing field for all.

What are your thoughts on the UK’s transition to EVs? Please jump in to the comments below to join the discussion.

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June saw plugin EVs at 90.9% share of Norway’s auto market, up from 89.9% a year ago. Full electrics increased their share to 82.2%, with plugin hybrid share diminishing to 8.7%. Overall auto volume was 15,566 units, up 4.5% YoY. Tesla’s Model Y was yet again Norway’s best selling vehicle, almost 3x the volume of the runner up.

With combined EVs at 90.9% share in June, full battery electrics (BEVs) contributed 82.2%, with plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 8.7%. These compare with corresponding YoY shares of 89.9%, 78.7%, and 11.2%. We can see that the plugin weighting is shifting towards BEVs.

In volume terms, BEVs grew by 9.2% YoY to 12,801 units. PHEVs meanwhile shrank 18.9% to 1,354.

Combustion-only powertrains combined lost 39% volume YoY, falling to 588 units in June, and 3.8% of the market.

Due to the new higher emissions taxes from January 1st, plugless hybrids (HEVs) have taken over share from combustion-only vehicles this year, currently at 6.2% YTD cumulative share.

Plugless vehicles will continue to be sold in Norway until plugin options — most likely BEVs — appear in all vehicle segments, and at affordable price points.

Norway’s Bestsellers

As usual, the Tesla Model Y is again the bestseller, with 3,125 units, almost 3x the volume of the runner up Volkswagen ID.4. The third place goes to the Skoda Enyaq.

 

There were no new faces in the top 20, just some shuffling of already established models. The only top 20 model to put in a personal-best performance was the MG4, with 242 units, and gaining 15th spot, a new high. As one of Europe’s best value BEVs, we can expect the MG4 to keep climbing.

Outside the top 20, there were a few newcomers. The most significant is the Jeep Avenger making its Norway debut, though with just 3 units for now. Let’s see if this somewhat affordable small SUV can catch on in Norway, as it already is doing in France.

The commercial brand, Maxus, well known for good value vans in Norway, has recently released a pickup truck to the Norwegian market, the Maxus T90 (36 units in June). It is moderately affordable (€50,000), and is perhaps the first BEV available in Norway that can appeal as a realistic work-vehicle option for farmers and rural workers.

The T90 has one glaring issue, however — it is currently only available as rear-wheel drive! To appeal as a dependable field-and-forest vehicle, especially in snowy Norway, Maxus will have to make a 4WD variant available.

Further down the ranks, Lotus debuted their premium sporty SUV, the Eletre. This is priced over €90,000, so won’t make a volume impact on Norway’s transition. It’s nevertheless good to see a long established ICE sports car brand starting to offer BEVs. If it sells well, it might motivate others in the performance SUV segment to hurry their own electric offerings (are you listening Porsche?).

Let’s now view the longer perspective:

In the 3-month view, the Tesla Model Y is still incredibly dominant, with around 2.8x the volume of the runner up Volkswagen ID.4.

There are a few significant movers in the top 20. Most impressive is the BMW iX1, which more than trebled its previous 3-month volume, to a record 1,102 units, putting it in sixth spot.

The Nissan Ariya saw 2.5x its previous volume, with 713 units, and took 10th place. The MG4 also put in a strong performance, with volume 2x its previous best, and took 19th place.

Let’s give a shout out also to the Volkswagen ID. Buzz which continues to do remarkably well for this large format of vehicle (selling almost twice the volume of the ID.3!) The Buzz’s volume grew 46% over the previous quarter, to a healthy 1,589 units, and it took 4th place overall.

June’s EVs At 90.9%… How About The Fleet?

Let me give a quick update on Norway’s fleet transition to plugins. As of the end of Q1 2023 (the latest available fleet data), plugins made up 28.4% of Norway’s passenger car fleet, with BEVs at 21.5%. Once we get the end-of-June figures, they will likely show give-or-take 30% plugin share of the fleet (~22.7% BEV).

The fleet turnover rate to plugins is currently around 5.5% per year, and will be a little over 6% per year once plugins take 95% to 99% of new sales. If very affordable BEVs arrive in plentiful supply, folks may decide to retire their old ICE car “earlier” than usual, to grab the running cost savings of BEVs, and the annual fleet turnover rate could — in principle — approach 7%.

 

Outlook

Despite YoY auto market growth in June, the first half of the year saw overall auto volume down by 2.9%. Norway’s auto industry group,  the OFV, attributes the drop to “uncertainty among consumers”.  They go on to say “We expect that some will have to postpone the purchase of a new car due to financial challenges with the current level of interest rates and price increases.” (OFV, machine translation)

The inflation rate is currently at almost 7%, and although fossil fuel sales have grown massively over the past 18 months, the non-fossil fuel portion of the economy is almost stagnant.

These factors obviously weigh on consumer sentiment, as OFV points out. However, Norway remains an extremely wealthy country overall, so don’t expect purchases of new vehicles, particularly BEVs, to dry up. As more models become available at lower price points, and more diverse vehicle segments, BEVs will continue to steadily grow share. The speed at which these models become available will dictate the final stages of Norway’s transition to BEVs.

What are your thoughts on Norway’s EV transition? Please join the discussion by jumping into the comments section below.

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Sweden’s June auto market saw plugin EVs take 59.2% share, up from 55.1% year on year. Full electrics grew share at a decent rate, while plugin hybrids retreated slightly. Overall auto volume was 28,283 units, up some  9% YoY, though still below pre-2020 norms. The Tesla Model Y was June’s best selling vehicle.

June’s result saw EVs take 59.2% combined share, which comprised 38.7% full electrics (BEVs), and 20.5% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These compare with figures of 55.1%, 31.6%, and 23.5% a year ago. We can see that BEVs have grown well whilst PHEVs have slightly declined.

Regarding volumes, BEVs grew by 33% YoY to 10,956 units, while PHEV declined by 5% to 5,798 units.  All of the overall auto market’s 9% YoY volume growth came from growth in plugins, leaving combined plugless vehicles with a volume drop, albeit with some shift in weighting from diesel to petrol.

Diesel-only volume fell by over 37% YoY, to 2,277 units, and just 8.1% of the market (from 14.0% YoY). The YTD share for diesel is just 9%, and is unlikely to climb back above 10% for any sustained period.

Bestselling BEVs

The Tesla Model Y once again took the top spot in June, making it the leader for 3 of the past 4 months, not just in BEVs, but in the overall market.

The Model Y has firmly toppled the previous regular leader, the Volvo XC40 (now in 4th). Second place went to the Volkswagen ID.4, and the Kia EV6 took third.

There were no new faces in the top 20 (nor even any newcomers BEV models to the overall market), but June saw a few personal-best performances. The BMW i4 saw its highest volume yet (458 units), and climbed to 7th.

The BYD Atto 3 saw its highest volume since the initial big splash in December, with 302 units in June, and 11th place. Close behind, the MG4 maintained the strong volume it pioneered in May, and claimed its highest rank so far, 13th position.

Let’s now step back for the 3 month view:

The Tesla Model Y leads, as we would expect, but at a volume around 2x that of its nearest rival, the VW ID.4. The Volvo XC40 comes in third.

Just below the middle of the table, the relative newcomers, the MG4, the Toyota BZ4X, and the BYD Atto 3 have all now established themselves — and their brands’ BEV-credentials — in the Swedish market. They can build on this foundation with more BEV models in the future.

 

Outlook

The Swedish auto industry association, Mobility Sweden, points out that H1’s overall auto market was 2% down in volume, year on year, saying “The low registration figures are largely an effect of the current economic situation which affects the car market.” (Machine translation).

What is that economic situation? The Swedish economy is experiencing just 0.6% economic growth, 20% youth unemployment, over 5% YoY retail sales drop, and almost 10% overall price inflation (and 14% food price inflation). Consumer sentiment is obviously suffering as a result, thus the above statement from Mobility Sweden.

Whilst BEVs still offer long term total cost of ownership advantages over ICE equivalents, there’s still a high price of entry to buying any new auto, and the overall market’s volumes are forecast to suffer as a result. In addition, the November 2022 cancellation of incentives for plugin orders placed thereafter, is only now about to become evident in plugin delivery numbers (due to the 6+ month delay between order and delivery). We will likely see some disjunctures in the figures over the coming few months, as a result.

What are your thoughts on Sweden’s EV transition? Please join in the discussion in the comments below.

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France saw a new EV record high of 26.9% market share in June, up from 19.8% year on year. Full electrics grew from 12.8% to 17.4% share, while plugin hybrids grew from 7.0% to 9.4%. Overall auto volume was 190,847 units, up some 12% YoY, though still below long term norms, and with almost all the growth coming from plugins.

The bestselling BEV in June was again the Tesla Model Y, just ahead of its sibling, the Tesla Model 3.

June’s combined plugin result of 26.9% comprised 17.4% full electrics (BEVs), and 9.4% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These figures compare with 19.8%, 12.8%, and 7.0%, a year ago.

In terms of volumes, BEVs grew 52% YoY to 33,279 units — a new record — while PHEVs grew 50% to 17,969. This is the strongest YoY volume growth for plugins since late 2021, and represents over 90% of June’s headline YoY auto market volume growth.

Combined combustion-only share hit a new record low of 45.0% in June (from 54.6% YoY), with both Petrol share (35.8%) and Diesel share (9.3%) hitting record lows.

France bestsellers

France’s new EV record high was helped by Tesla’s combined Model Y and Model 3 volumes, which hit an all time high for the brand in June, with 8,301 units delivered. This is a dramatic up-tick from their 3,807 combined units a year ago.

The Tesla Model Y was June’s bestselling BEV, with 4,335 units. It is also now France’s 8th best selling vehicle overall in 2023, year to date.

In the June BEV rankings, the Tesla Model 3 took second spot, and the Fiat 500e took third.

In 4th place was the MG4 (its highest ever ranking), and in 5th was the ever-popular Dacia Spring (the 14th overall bestseller in France, YTD).

The Renault Megane put in its best monthly volume since December, at 2,377 units, taking 6th spot. This makes for six BEV models with over 2,000 monthly sales in June, a new record. With the Peugeot e-208 not far behind, can we expect that to increase to 7 models in September?

With limited BEV model data this month, we can’t say for sure whether any newcomers made debuts in the French market. We can confirm that the still new Jeep Avenger continued to grow monthly volume (441 units, from a 334 debut last month), placing it in 16th spot in June.

Let’s now look at the trailing 3 month volumes:

Here, the top 3 spots are no surprise, with regular favourites the Tesla Model Y, Dacia Spring, and Fiat 500, representing.

Despite coming 2nd in June, the Tesla Model 3 is “only” in 4th in the above chart, due to still being subject to shipping lulls in the first part of each quarter. This variability is avoided by the Model Y, which is now made locally in Europe and thus able to deliver in more steady monthly volumes.

There are no huge moves in the top 20 ranking this time around, and as the French BEV market matures, we can expect dramatic rank changes to become more rare. However, we should see the new Jeep Avenger joining the top 20 next month, if it stays on its recent trajectory.

Outlook

Parts of France are suffering from social unrest, and the country’s economic situation is lacklustre, with economic (and wage) stagnation combined with price inflation faced by consumers, and youth employment of 17%, all surely contributing to frustrations.

Compared to other sectors of the economy, the auto industry has seen relatively strong YoY growth, with almost all of that growth coming from increased sales of plugins, especially BEVs. Long term running costs of BEVs, and total cost of ownership, are still advantageous compared to equivalent ICE vehicles, and those consumers who can still afford to be in the market for a new vehicle are increasingly turning towards BEVs.

What are your thoughts on France’s transition to EVs? Please jump in the comments below to join the discussion.

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Tesla hits the UK with its strongest ever May, helping lift the plugin electric vehicle market share to 23.1%, up from 18.3% year on year. BEVs have grown well, whilst PHEVs have remained mostly flat. Overall market volume was 145,204 units, some 17% up YoY, though still below the pre-2020 norms. The Tesla Model Y was the bestselling BEV in May.

May 2023’s combined plugin result of 23.1% comprised 16.9% full electrics (BEVs), and 6.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These figures compare with 18.3%, 12.4%, and 5.9% in May 2022. We can see that PHEVs have slightly grown share over the past 12 months, whilst BEVs have gained share at a healthy clip.

In terms of volumes, BEVs grew by a strong 59% YoY, to 24,513 units. With overall market volume growing by 17%, PHEVs stayed just ahead with 23% growth, and 9,025 units.

Combined combustion-only share fell to 45.1% of the market, down from 51.8% YoY. Diesel in particular continued its steep decline, to 4.0% (from 6.1% YoY), at 5,758 units.

UK Bestselling BEV Brands

Tesla was once again the UK’s leading BEV brand in May, selling 3,439 vehicles, of which 2,509 were the Model Y.

This is a big YoY improvement for Tesla, and the best May result on record, by a wide margin. May 2022 only saw a couple of dozen Tesla vehicles delivered.

The Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg’s ramping output has allowed more stabilization of Tesla’s European deliveries. At the same time, vehicles for left hand drive markets like the UK (and Japan, and many others throughout Asia), which are all made in Shanghai, can now be given a bit more frequent (or consistent) batching.

The Model Y was also the overall 9th best selling vehicle in the UK in May, and is the 7th bestseller year to date.

There were no huge moves in the monthly brand rankings. Vauxhall/Opel climbed a few spots, presumably due to a shipping a new batch of RHD vehicles, and Volkswagen fell a few spots, likely for the inverse reason.

Let’s have a quick view of the 3 month results:

Here Tesla confirms its UK brand lead, ahead of MG Motor in #2, and Volkswagen in #3. Tesla currently has around 17% share of the UK’s BEV market.

With the new MG4 now delivering in good volumes, MG Motor has climbed from 5th position in the December-to-February period, to 2nd position over the trailing three months. This is just reward for a brand offering some of Europe’s best value BEVs, with 7 year full vehicle warranty.

Due to data anomalies at the UK DVLA, we don’t have very comprehensive market data this month, so we can’t dive into much detail about manufacturing group share. All being well, we will be able to review group share again next month.

 

UK Outlook

The UK’s economy is drifting between recession and scanty growth, with recent forecasts improving from a previous negative 0.4% GDP for 2023, to positive 0.3%. Inflation however remains at much higher rates, currently at 8.7% headline rate, though improved from 10.1% a month ago.

These conditions of increasing prices for essentials like food and energy, at the same time as zero growth and potential job insecurity, don’t inspire consumer confidence. This is especially the case for large outlays like cars, and particularly BEVs.

Nevertheless, savvy consumers (and fleet buyers) who are still in the market for new vehicles, can make substantial lifetime running cost savings from a BEV over a combustion vehicle, if they are able to pay the higher entry price. For this reason, although overall auto market volume may be lacklustre in the months ahead, plugins should continue to grow share.

What are your thoughts on the UK’s transition to EVs? Please jump in below to join the conversation.

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The auto market in Germany saw plugin EVs take 22.9% share in May 2023, down from 25.3% year on year. Full electrics gained share, but were outpaced by the losses in plugin hybrid share, due to recent policy changes. Overall auto volume was 246,966 units, up by some 20% YoY, though down from pre-2020 norms. The bestselling full electric in May was the Tesla Model Y, boosted by domestic production.

May’s overall plugin result of 22.9% comprised 17.3% battery electrics (BEVs), and 5.6% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These figures compare with May 2022 results of 25.3%, 14.1%, and 11.2%.

Where the split between BEVs and PHEVs was more balanced a year ago, recent emissions-related policy changes have cut all financial support for PHEVs, leading to a dramatically diminished share. PHEVs have remained in the 5% to 6% share range this year, from 12% to 14% over the same period last year.

Looking at unit volumes, BEVs have grown by over 46% YoY, reaching 42,780 units. PHEVs however fell by 40% YoY, to 13,803 units.

In my view, now that PHEVs are not receiving funds from the public purse, those who continue to buy them are presumably likely to be doing so for the running costs savings. These savings are made by switching most of their driving from combustion to electric, which obviously requires regularly plugging the vehicle in. Purchase bonuses for PHEVs were always a perverse incentive, and for some cynical buyers, replaced the more fundamental economic incentive of actually plugging them in to save on fuel costs.

This perverse incentive is now corrected, but perhaps too late in the technology transition for PHEVs to receive serious attention from consumers and manufacturers going forwards, at least in Germany. With DC infrastructure in most parts of the country (and much of north-west Europe) already quite reliable, and still improving, there are surely fewer and fewer drivers who feel the need for a combustion engine as backup.

May’s combined combustion-only share fell by 3% YoY, to 53.1% of the market. It is tracking to fall below 50% by the end of Q3, and perhaps not climb above 50% thereafter, except on the odd occasion.

Germany’s BEV bestsellers in May

The Tesla Model Y was again the bestselling plugin in May, at 4,240 units. Runners up were the Volkswagen ID.4/ID.5, and — a long way further back — the Volkswagen ID.3.

Tesla’s gigafactory in Berlin-Brandenberg had ramped peak production rate to over 5,000 Model Y vehicles per week before the end of March (from 4,000 per week near the end of February). This might suggest around 22,000 units (or more) produced for European delivery during May, making the 4,240 units delivered within Germany itself somewhat modest by comparison (and lower than February).

Yet the Model Y still delivered more units than any other BEV. Expect to see huge registration volumes in June.

There weren’t many surprises in the top 20. The BMW i4 saw its best ever monthly volume, at 1,347 units, climbing to 8th place. Likewise did its younger sibling, the BMW iX1 (1,325 units), taking 9th.

In terms of newcomer BEVs further down the ranks, the biggest news was the first appearance of Stellantis’ Jeep Avenger, with a debut of 313 units. I discussed the Avenger in my France report if you want details of this new model. It should do well in Europe.

There were no other absolute newcomers in May. The “Smart #1” climbed to a new personal-best volume of 497 units (from previous best, 313 units in March), and may perhaps enter the monthly top 2o soon.

The BYD Atto 3 continued to tread water, at 49 units in May. I expect BYD is getting customer feedback, establishing after-sales service, and solving any teething problems, before upping volumes in the future.

Let’s now look at the longer view:

In the three month view, the Tesla Model Y confirms its dominance. The relative positions of the top three BEVs mirror the May chart above, suggesting the emergence of some stability in the market, in large part thanks to Tesla’s evolution past peak-and-trough shipping schedules.

Again, there are no huge surprises in the top 20. The new entrants are the MG4 (#12, after debut in September), and BMW ix1 (#13, debut in November). Both models have seen steady volume ramps since launch, and both likely have further positions to climb.

Notice the relative evenness of the positions #9 (Mini Cooper) on down. The even distribution trend continues well beyond the top 20, with over 1,000 units delivered by models as far down as rank #36. Again this reflects a maturing of Germany’s BEV market, and the BEV industry overall.

Let’s finally have a quick look at the auto manufacturing groups:

In their home market, Volkswagen Group continue to dominate. Their share of the market in the three months to May climbed to 29.4%, from 27.9% in the three months to February. Tesla’s share on the other hand fell over the same period, to 14.2%, from 19.5%.

Note that we can’t necessarily read too much in to this, since different manufacturers continuously shuffle around supply between various European markets. Germany may be prioritised at different times by different manufacturers. A changing incentive landscape between different countries (often affecting different vehicle price points differently) is one reason for different priorities, for example.

There weren’t many large changes in group rankings, except that Renault-Nissan group continued to drop, from 4th previously, to 7th now. Their share fell from 8.6% to 4.7% over the period.

 

Outlook

Although May saw Germany’s EVs take 22.9% of the market, the broader German economy, Europe’s largest, has now registered two successive quarters of negative growth. This means Germany is officially in recession, though currently a mild one, by the numbers.

Since a month ago, headline inflation has come down slightly (6.1% from 7.2%) but that’s still very high for a recessionary economy. Inflation is led by energy price and food price inflation, non-discretionary goods which all families must spend on. This means that consumers are facing tightening pocket books, just whilst salary earnings and jobs are potentially under threat.

For big ticket items like car purchases (and especially BEVs), these economic conditions represent headwinds, although the auto market is still one of the brighter spots in the overall economy. This may be because car buyers had put off new car purchases over the past 3 years, and are now conducting “unfinished business from before”, rather than reflecting much positive consumer sentiment about conditions going forwards. We will have to wait and see how it pans out.

Nevertheless, German consumers are now fully aware that plugins, particularly BEVs, offer better long term value compared to combustion-only vehicles. We can thus expect to see plugin share of auto sales continue to creep up, even if overall auto market volumes remain well below pre-2020 levels.

What are your thoughts on Germany’s EV transition? Which BEV models are you looking forward to seeing debut? Please join in the conversation in the comments below.

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May saw France’s plugins take over 24% market share, up from 20.9% year on year, with new Stellantis BEVs arriving. Full electrics grew from 12.0% to 15.6% share, while plugin hybrids slightly lost share. Overall auto volume was 145,536 units, up some 15% YoY, though still down on pre-2020 norms. The bestselling BEV in May was the Tesla Model Y.

May’s combined plugin result of 24.3% comprised 15.6% full electrics (BEVs), and 8.7% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These figures compare with 20.9%, 12.0%, and 8.9%, a year ago.

In unit volumes, BEVs grew 49% YoY to 22,667 units, while PHEV grew 12% to 12,632. This is a healthy growth clip for BEVs.

Diesel share dropped from 17.5% YoY, to just 10.4%, the lowest share of the recent decades.  We can expect it to dip below 10% in the coming few months, and largely remain below thereafter.

 

 

Bestsellers in May

 

France’s bestsellers in May remained in line with recent trends, with the Tesla Model Y taking the top spot, at 2,708 units, just slightly ahead of the Fiat 500e, at 2,601 units.

Other regular favourites, the Peugeot 208, and the Dacia Spring, took third and fourth.

The MG4 put in a record performance, with 1,593 units, securing 5th spot in May. An impressive feat for the newcomer, which only launched in noticeable volume in October. This was the biggest (relative) volume growth in the top 10 in May, let’s see if MG can sustain this level of supply (there’s no lack of demand).

Only one vehicle in top 20 made a bigger splash — the new Jeep Avenger BEV. Jeep is now part of Stellantis Group, and the Avenger shares a powertrain with the updated versions of the Peugeot 2008, Citroen e-C4, Opel Mocha, Opel Astra, and similar Stellantis BEVs. Specs include a 50.8 kWh usable battery (~54kWh gross), and 100 kW peak charging (~26 mins 10% to 80% in ideal conditions). With tweaked efficiency over previous Stellantis BEV generations, and being a relatively light “Small SUV” (B-segment), the Avenger has WLTP combined cycle range of upto 404 kilometres, which — in the mild climates of France and southern Europe — can be enough for many families.

Talking of the Stellantis BEVs, the new Peugeot e-308 also saw its first registered units in France in May, with 40 initial deliveries. It has the same powertrain specs as the Avenger above, but being a lower shaped hatchback (albeit in the larger C-segment), has slightly better rated range of 410 km. The 308 has for years been amongst the top 10 overall bestselling vehicles in France, so presumably the new BEV version should go on to be a regular high performer in out monthly rankings. Let’s see.

Another newcomer to the French Market at significant volume was the new BYD Atto 3, with 60 units in May (it had landed just 6 demo units over the previous two month). Recall that the Atto 3 already started delivering in the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden at the end of 2022.

 

The Volkswagen ID.Buzz, which landed in France  only in April, with an initial 46 units, has already stepped up to 79 units in May. If the ID.Buzz continues to prove (relatively) popular in France, should Citroën release an updated version of the classic Citroën Type H van (above) to compete with it? Answers down below please!

 

Looking at the 3 month chart, the Model Y is still very dominant (though not as much so in France as we have seen in Sweden and Norway).

Overall the top 15 spots were remarkably static compared to 3 months prior, with only small moves up or down. There were no all-new faces in the top 20.

 

Outlook

France’s EV transition continues to progress, and although not as headline grabbing as some other markets, is actually doing okay if we look at BEV volume growth. The year-to-date cumulative BEV volume is over 46% ahead of where it was at this point last year – strong growth no matter which way you slice it.

Local heroes Stellantis – responsible for around 27% of all France’s BEV sales – are introducing several new models, and are continuously improving the existing models with greater efficiency and range. They presumably are also increasing production capacity for these BEV models, if nothing else, to compete with the “feared” affordable BEVs from Chinese brands.

PHEVs have evidently hit a plateau at a level of roughly 7% to 9% share over the past 24 months. But BEVs are definitely still growing strongly, and France is taking the task of opening battery gigafactories seriously. There is every prospect that the country’s EV transition will continue at pace.

What are your thoughts on France’s plugins, and EV transition? Should Citroën resurrect the Type H van? Let us know below.

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Plugin electric vehicles saw strong year on year growth in market share in Sweden, taking 61.9% of the market, from 47.5% in May 2022. Full electrics carried all of the growth, alone accounting for 40.9% share, with plugin hybrids slightly losing share YoY. Overall auto volume was 28,492 units, up some 8% YoY, though year to date volume remains some 5% down compared to 2022. The best selling car in May was the Tesla Model Y.

May’s combined plugin result of 61.9% comprised 40.9% full electrics (BEVs), and 21% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These compare with figures of 47.5%, 24,2%, and 23.3% a year ago.  We can see that BEVs have grown strongly whilst PHEVs have slightly declined.

Combustion-only powertrains have fallen from 42.6% a year ago, to 28.9% last month. Diesel has had a particularly steep decline, from 15.1% to 8.4%.

Looking at volumes, BEVs came close to doubling YoY, while PHEV lost about 2% volume.

We can expect another strong month for plugins in June, with BEVs alone likely approaching 50% share of the market.

Bestsellers

As we have just seen for neighbouring Norway, Tesla is no longer only shipping large volumes in the last month of each quarter. May saw the Model Y delivering 1,903 units, its second best monthly result ever (after 3,202 units in March).

Local hero the Volvo XC40 came in second with 1,041 units, with the Volkswagen ID.4 in third, at 837 units.

Two other local models, the Polestar 2, and the Volvo C40 filled out the top 5 spots.

Further back, the Audi Q4 e-tron saw its best monthly performance in a couple of years, with 387 units, taking 8th spot.

Similar to what we have just seen in Norway, decent growth trends were seen for the Toyota BZ4X (#13) and the MG4 (#15), both seeing record Swedish volumes in May. Let’s see how far up the rankings these models can climb. The BZ4X’s recent software unlocks (improved battery and charging specs) make it more attractive than previously.

Interestingly, the MG5 estate/tourer is actually selling at even more volume than the MG4 in Sweden. So far as I know this is the only market where it is ahead of its younger sibling (let us know in the comments if you know different). It seems that the Swedes recognize the utility of this classic vehicle format, and the great value of the MG5.

There were no new BEV entrants into the Swedish market in May.

Now to the 3 month view:

Here the Tesla Model Y is similarly dominant, at close to twice the volume of its nearest competitor (the Volvo XC40).

Having launched in Sweden only in March, the Toyota BZ4X saw the biggest moves, going from nowhere to #17. There was no other significant news in the top 20.

Further back, the Volkswagen ID.Buzz has done well since its first volume deliverers in November, and has now climbed to #25 position. Any bets on whether it has the demand momentum (or perhaps that should be… the supply volume) to break into the top 20?

 

Outlook

 

Auto industry body Mobility Sweden is still concerned about weakening order books for BEVs, after incentives were cut last November. They fear that, after the backlog of pre-November orders is worked through (in the coming few months), BEV registration volumes will show noticeable decline.

Whether these fears will be realised remains to be seen. Certainly Tesla’s vehicles are still selling well, and (judging by the two months delivery wait) it would appear that many have continued to be ordered even after the November incentive cut. Let me know if you have a different take.

Mobility Sweden notes that a large chunk of auto demand has now switched away from private consumer purchases to business fleet purchases. Tesla is playing ball, with its Model Y splash page highlighting business leasing packages.

We will have to wait another 3 or 4 months to see how Sweden’s auto market resettling plays out. I am hopeful that savvy purchasers (whether businesses or private consumers) will still be able to take the long view, and bet on the total-cost-of-ownership advantage of BEVs.

What are your thoughts on Sweden’s near term auto market prospects, and EV transition? If you have anecdotal evidence of a change in orders since the incentive cut, please let us know in the comments below.

The post May 2023 – Tesla Model Y conquers Sweden first appeared on 🔋PushEVs.

Growth continued for the Norwegian plugin EV market in May 2023, as combined plugin share hit almost 90%, up from 85% a year ago. Full electrics alone took almost 81% share, grabbing 7.5% more of the remaining market than last year. The overall auto market saw volumes of 13.342 units, up almost 16% YoY, and higher than May 2019. The Tesla Model Y was the month’s bestselling vehicle, miles ahead of others in volume.

The 88.9% combined plugin total was made up of 80.7% BEVs, and 8.2% PHEVs.  A year ago their scores were 85.1% combined, with 73.2% BEV, and 11.9% PHEV. Combined score has just dipped below the >90% maintained over the past three months, but will get back well above 90% in June. The market is still finding its new equilibrium after January 1st incentive changes.

Volume of PHEVs was down only about 20% from May last year (despite much less incentive support), whilst BEV volumes increased by over 27% YoY.

Combined combustion-only share stood at 3.3%, with only March 2023 lower (2.7%). Their combined volume, at 435 units, was less than half that of May 2022.

It is quite likely that from September 2023 onwards, excepting unforeseen anomalies, plugins won’t drop below 90% market share, and combustion-only won’t return above 5% share. For plugins to get consistently above 95% share will require more diverse – and especially, more affordable – vehicle classes to be catered for.

Norway’s May ’23 Bestsellers

There was a time, not so very long ago, that Tesla would rarely overwhelm Norway’s sales charts outside the final month of each quarter, when shipping volumes peaked. That’s no longer the case, largely thanks to steady European supply coming from Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg.

May was a case in point, with the Model Y completely swamping its nearest competitors, and matching the volume of the next 5 models combined.

 

The runners up were the Volkswagen ID.4, and the BMW iX1. Notice that every member of the top 10 is (approximately) a mid-sized SUV or crossover, save for the ID.Buzz.

The BMW iX1 has climbed the ranks fast, from its launch last December, to now hit the #3 spot. Its previous high was #10, just last month. Let’s see what volumes BMW can maintain for this model, their most affordable current BEV. It appears to be in the sweet spot for the Norwegian market.

The only other notable progress in the top 20 was from the MG4, which is slowly cranking up its Norwegian supply, reaching a 175 unit personal best in May. I expect – in terms of demand – the sky is the limit for this model (as it would also be for anything similarly good value from other manufacturers). In reality though, MG’s production capacity is the actual limit, and it remains to be seen how many units Norway can be allocated each month. Whatever they can supply will doubtless be snapped up.

Beyond the spotlight of the top 20, the BYD Atto 3 resumed a steady increase in volume, with 52 units in May. This is still far short of its first big push in December (a one-off 576 units), but a slow and steady increase in monthly supply give us a better read on its long term prospects. BYD has the capacity to supply huge demand – it sold almost 30,000 units of the model in China alone in April.

At a different price point, the Lexux RZ450E stepped up its delivery volume modestly, from its launch of 14 units in April, to 51 units in May. This is essentially the Lexus variant of the Toyota BZ4X, with the same battery and charging, but significantly more powerful motors, and fractionally less range. The Toyota sibling (#16 in May, though #2 in March) has recently received software improvements to charging speed, with more battery capacity unlocked for use (trimming of the reserve buffer). Presumably the same improvements can make it to the Lexus also.

Let’s check up on the longer term rankings (note the graph scale for the Tesla Model Y is trimmed to fit):

In the 3 month view, the Tesla Model Y is even more dominant, almost matching the volume of the next 8 vehicles combined!

The Volkswagen ID. Buzz, in #4, is proving popular – surely the first minivan that has become a regular in the top 5 in Norway. Recall that it only launched in volume in October. I’m interested to see if its current volume reflects the one-time fulfilling of longstanding backorders, or whether it will sustain this over the longer term. Let’s see.

Likewise, from an October (re-)launch, the Toyota BZ4X has done well to climb into #5 spot in Norway. The software tweaks mentioned above can only help its popularity grow.

Based on recent trends, we can expect the MG4 to enter the top 20 chart sometime in the next couple of months.

 

Outlook

Norway’s EV growth continues to shine, with BEVs steadily filling out the rest of the market. May was the 4th month on the run that saw BEVs take over 80% of the market, which is a strong sign. Their year-to-date share of the market now stands at 83.3% (despite the hangover from the January 1st incentive changes).  A year ago, the figure was 79.2%. I would guess that – a year from now – we might be looking at 88% or above.

For the growth to continue briskly into the high 90% range will require a few more good value options to compete with the MG4. This means manufacturers coming with vehicles at a delivery price around (or under) ~€25,000 (~290,000 NOK). They must at the same time offer reasonable competence in range and charging speed.

We know that BYD will eventually come to Europe with the Seagull, but which other manufacturers are willing to step up? Volkswagen has shown an ID.2 concept that may be offered around this price, and an even more affordable ID.1 may come after that. But these are not currently expected until 2025, and 2027, respectively! Perhaps closer are the Renault 5 and Renault 4, currently slated for launch in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Please let us know in the comments which BEVs under a €25,000 price you have your eye on for launch over the next couple of years.

What are your thoughts on Norway’s EV transition overall? Please join in the discussion below.

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