Author: Dr. Maximilian Holland

The UK car market saw plugin electric vehicles take 21.9% share of sales in April 2023, up from 16.2% year on year. Full battery electrics grew strongly in both share, and in volume. Overall auto volume was 132,990 units, up 11.6% YoY, though still down from the roughly 170,000 pre-2020 seasonal norm. The UK’s best selling BEV brand in April was Volkswagen.

April’s combined plugin result of 21.9% comprised 15.4% full battery electrics (BEVs), and 6.5% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). This compares with respective YoY shares of 16.2%, 10.8%, and 5.4%. We can see that BEVs have grown share strongly YoY, by over 1.4x.

Looking at volumes, against the backdrop of 11.6% YoY overall market growth, BEVs grew volume 59% to 20,522 units, and PHEVs grew 33%, to 8,595 units.

Most of the auto market’s volume growth, in fact, came from plugins. All other powertrains combined, only grew by 4% in volume YoY, and all non-plugins lost share. Diesel-only vehicles — already a fast diminishing slice of the market — fell in volume by over 13% YoY, to 5,825 units, and just 4.4.% share.

Bestselling BEV brands

Volkswagen was the UK’s bestselling BEV brand in April, led by the ID.3, which has recently been their top selling BEV model (and 4th BEV overall in 2022).

April’s runner up brand was MG, in large thanks to the popular new MG4, arguably Europe’s best value BEV, building on the success of the MG5, and the ZS.

Tesla, the long-term favourite, settled for 3rd spot in April, being in an off-month for international shipments. The Model Y, however, remains the year-to-date best selling BEV in the UK (and 7th overall), with 11,503 sales. Whilst March saw a huge 8,123 units, April dropped off to 1,550 units.

Beyond the normal monthly ebbs and flows resulting from varying international shipping schedules, there were no great changes in the popular brands in April. We can expect Tesla to jump to the top again, with large volumes, in June.

Let’s look at the longer term picture which evens out some of those monthly irregularities:

Here Tesla’s dominance of BEV brands is more clear, with twice the share of the next closest, MG Motor.

It’s a shame to see Renault fall so far from Grace. With the original Zoe, Renault was an absolute pioneer in EVs, regularly in the UK’s first or second spot a decade ago (along with the original Nissan Leaf).

The latest generation Zoe is still available, with a decent range (WLTP 238 miles, 383 km), but its slow charging speed versus rivals like the Stellantis cars (Peugeot e-208 and siblings), the VW ID.3, and now the MG4, is really making it seem technically outdated, especially for occasional longer trips. Renault also made missteps around cutting the Zoe’s active safety systems, leading it to drop its score in the ever-evolving EuroNCAP safety rankings — all important for a family car.

To recover, Renault will either need to quickly grow volumes of the new Megane (which seems unlikely), or need to wait for the upcoming Renault 5 BEV, currently due for European launch next year.

Group partner company Nissan has suffered a similar fate. Let us hope their upcoming CMF-B EV platform, which both the Renault 5, and an upcoming Nissan Micra successor, will be based on, can revive the fortunes of these two early BEV pioneers.

Talking of automotive groups, let’s look at the group performance in the UK BEV market:

Volkswagen group, with BEVs from Volkswagen brand, Audi, Cupra (and SEAT), Skoda, and Porsche (amongst others), is leading the trailing 3 months share, by a small margin over Tesla.

Over a longer time period, Tesla has been doing slightly better than Volkswagen Group until recently. The UK market, with its right-hand drive vehicles, is often delivered to in production batches, and we can only really look at full year results, or a trailing 12 month view, to get a balanced picture. In full year 2022, Tesla was about 19% ahead of Volkswagen Group on UK BEV volume. Over the most recent trailing 12 months to end-of-April 2023, the two are pretty much even. The good news for consumers is that both are growing volumes fast.

 

Outlook

The UK auto industry body, the SMMT, note that the annual growth in auto sales is one of the bright spots in an otherwise gloomy UK economy. The general UK economic outlook is currently for flat economic output in 2023, with a recent hopeful chance to avoid an outright recession, which is an improvement over how things looked a couple of months ago. It’s still one of the worst outlooks, globally.

For consumer spending, relevant to the auto market and EV sales, very high energy and food price inflation are weighing on consumer pocket books.

The SMMT’s April report notes that the very high electricity prices are now denting the growth trajectory of BEVs in the UK. The body has revised down its forecast for 2023 full year BEV market share, from 19.7%, down to 18.4%. The SMMT also repeats the need to improve UK charging infrastructure.

What are your thoughts on the UK’s transition to EVs? Please join in the conversation below.

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The German auto market saw plugin electric vehicles take 20.5% share in April, significantly down from 24.3% year on year. Full electrics, however, saw increased share, though were outweighed by a halving of plugin hybrid share, a result of recent policy adjustments. Overall auto volume in April was 202,947 units, 12.6% up YoY, though still one third below pre-2020 seasonal norms (around 305,000 units).  The bestselling full electric in April was the Volkswagen ID.4 / ID.5.

April’s combined plugin result of 20.5% comprised 14.7% battery electrics (BEVs), and 5.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These figures compare YoY with 24.3%, 12.3%, and 12.0%. We see that — against a context of almost equal weighting a year ago — BEVs have since increased their share, and PHEVs have halved theirs.

Recall that Germany adjusted their incentive schemes for plugins, starting from January 1st this year. BEVs saw a modest trimming of support, but PHEVs had their ecobonus support cut entirely, amounting to a roughly 4,000€ effective increase in purchase cost for consumers. It was therefore fully expected that PHEV share would take a fall, and the YoY halving of share in April simply confirms this.

In terms of volume, BEVs outshone the overall auto market, growing 34% YoY to 29,740 units. Only plugless hybrids (HEVs) did similarly well, growing volume 36% YoY. Recall that HEVs are a transition technology that still derive 100% of their motive energy from hydrocarbons, and typically have no more than one or two kilometres of electric range. In the case of mild hybrids, they only have torque assist, not usually an outright electric mode.

As the market continues to settle down from the policy changes, we can expect PHEVs to recover slightly, and for BEVs alone to reach above 20% share by the end of Q3.

Bestselling BEVs

April’s bestselling BEV was the Volkswagen ID.4 / ID.5. The runner up was the smaller sibling, the Volkswagen ID.3,  and the Tesla Model Y came in third.

Apart from some shuffling of already established models, there is not much news to report from the top 20, and no new faces joined. Most models — in line with the overall market — saw more modest volumes in April, than in March.

Further down the rankings, the new Lexus RZ delivered its first 16 units to the German market, the only new BEV model to appear this month. April also didn’t see any fast-ramp-up growth stories from newer BEV models, with cars like the BYD Atto 3, and Smart #1 mainly just treading water (for now at least).

Let’s look at the normalised trailing 3-month model rankings:

Here, the Tesla Model Y shows its popularity, significantly ahead of even the second place Volkswagen ID.4 / ID.5.

There are not many significant changes in the top 20, apart from a couple of newish models that already climbed to claim their position in the rankings. One is the MG4 with, with first units delivered back in September, has now climbed to 11th spot. This is arguably Europe’s most affordable fully-competent BEV, so its fast climb to 11th is no great surprise.

Likewise, the BMW iX1, which debuted back in November, has already climbed to secure 16th spot, and has potential to go a bit higher. With the demise of the i3, the iX1 is now BMW’s most affordable BEV.

Just outside the top 20, currently in 24th, the new Ioniq 6 sedan (debuted in February) is already doing well, and may well regularly feature in the top 20 soon.

Let’s now check in on the manufacturing group performance:

Here, Volkswagen Group has a strong lead, from Tesla in second, the same top 2 positions as 3 months ago. Yet Volkswagen Group has grabbed an additional 1.8% share of the BEV market since then, while Tesla has maintained fairly steady share.

Mercedes Group leads the pack of followers, in third position, and has improved share of the BEV market, from close to 8% previously, to close to 12% now. BMW has likewise gained, from just over 5% share, to just over 8% share.

Conversely, both Stellantis, and Renault-Nissan, lost share over the period.

 

Outlook

The overall economic outlook in Germany is still cloudy, according to the latest data. Although February was more positive than had been feared, March was weaker, says ING. Some analysts fear that a decline in factory orders in March may signal a recession coming, even against the backdrop of a decently robust January and February. Overall inflation remains at 7.2%, with food and energy inflation that consumers are exposed to, much higher still.

The auto market’s 12.6% YoY growth was better than most other sectors, and the even stronger YoY growth in BEV share bodes well for the continuing transition to cleaner transport. The question will be whether the high inflation, and weak economy, will put a negative dampener on consumer sentiment. Especially for expensive purchases like cars, including BEVs.

What are your thoughts on Germany’s auto market, and transition to cleaner transport? Please join in the debate in the comments below.

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Norway increased its plugin electric vehicle market share to 91.1% in April 2023, up from 84.2% year-on-year. The auto market is still settling down after policy changes that came in at the start of the year. Overall auto volume was 8,976 units,  down 7.7% year-on-year. The bestselling vehicle was, again, the Tesla Model Y.

 

This is the first time Norway has seen 3 consecutive months with combined plugin share staying above 90% (see graph below). April’s combined share of 91.1% comprised 83.3% full battery electrics (BEVs), and 7.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). This compares to respective YoY scores of 84.2%, 74.1%, and 10.1%. We can see that BEVs have continued to grow, whilst PHEVs have been squeezed.

Looking at unit volumes, against the background of a 7.7% overall market drop YoY, BEVs grew volume by 3.7% to 7,471 units. PHEVs shrunk in volume by some 28%, down to 703 units.

All other powertrains lost volume YoY, with petrol-only vehicles at their 2nd lowest volume of the modern era (just 112 units), and 3rd lowest share ever, just 1.25% of the auto market.

As we noted for the neighbouring Swedish market, plugless hybrids (HEVs) are now passée in Norway, such is the country’s advanced stage of the EV transition. Their share dropped from 7.3% to 4.4% YoY.

Recall that new tax changes have applied from January 1st. Although these introduced some BEV taxes for the first time, mostly falling on heavy and expensive BEV models, taxes fell harder still on vehicles with CO2 emissions. This is why, for example, we are seeing petrol-only models taking a steeper dive, relative to the diesels (and HEVs) which typically have slightly lower per-kilometre emissions ratings. PHEVs, with their middling emissions ratings, are taxed somewhere in between.

The auto market pattern should mostly resettle sometime in Q3, but there is also the confounding factor of the long time period between placing orders and taking deliveries (registrations). This can be 6 to 12 months or more in some cases (especially for BEVs), so the 2023 market will continue to be somewhat shaped by orders placed under the previous tax regime, perhaps into Q4 2023, or even Q1 2024. Nevertheless, we should get a decent sense of the new trend in powertrain shares, by the end of Q3 this year.

 

 

Bestselling BEVs

The Tesla Model Y took the top spot in April — the first time it has done so in the initial month of a new quarter. This is down to Tesla’s improved shipping logistics, thanks to increasing steady European supply coming from Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg. We can expect this pattern of more even monthly deliveries to continue to improve, though the Shanghai units, that continue for now to comprise a significant portion of Europe’s supply, will still arrive in peaks and troughs.

In second place was another favourite, the Volkswagen ID.4, and the third spot was taken by its sibling, the ID.Buzz.

 

In terms of notable performances, in the middle of the table, the Nissan Ariya registered its highest monthly volume to date, with 270 units, and may still have more room to grow.

Conversely, the Toyota BZ4x, which had claimed second place in March (with 1,016 units), seems to be suffering from international logistics irregularities (à la Tesla-of-old), and was back down to 225 units (and 12th spot) in April.

As for newcomer BEV models, just as we saw in neighbouring Sweden, the Toyota’s group sibling, the Lexus RZ450e made its debut in Norway in April. Although sharing most of the same underpinnings, the Lexus is slightly bigger, heavier, and a bit more powerful than the BZ4X, with more luxury (and price), at the cost of slightly lower range.

Due to having a relatively modest battery for a large-ish SUV (64 kWh usable), and underwhelming efficiency, the real-world range is not class leading, but may be enough for some folks, given Norway’s well developed DC infrastructure. Let’s see how it gets on.

We will now take a look at the longer term rankings:

In the trailing 3-month picture, the Tesla Model Y’s overall dominance is more clear to see (note that the Model Y still has to be trimmed to fit on the graph)! It has 5.4 times the volume of the runner up, Toyota BZ4X. Other models in the top 20 are mostly familiar faces, with no great surprises.

It’s interesting to see the Volkswagen ID.Buzz quickly becoming so popular, as the first “Minivan” BEV that is designed for families and private consumers (rather than commercial use, and taxis). It is looking like Volkswagen may succeed in its dream to reboot the popularity of the classic “transporter” van/bus that first launched with the “T1” way back in 1949.

 

Outlook

As we have discussed previously, having quickly become a more important fossil fuel exporter to Europe over the past year, Norway’s macro-economic situation is much more positive than that of its European neighbours. However, price inflation of traded products, including fuel and fuel, still affects the pocket-book of Norwegian consumers and families, including those considering auto purchases. Yet this is unlikely to put a noticeable dent in Norway’s EV transition in the medium to long term.

As discussed above, the auto market is currently resettling from the January 1st policy changes, and we will be able to get a sense of the new pattern by Q3. I would expect that — after September 2023 — plugins will only very rarely drop below 90% of the market. December should see closer to 95% than 90%, for the first time. In my view, the remaining few percent will still depend on new BEVs in the affordable sub-compact class (BYD Seagull anyone?), and a few other small niches (sports cars, farmers’ pickups, and others) to be filled out with compelling and relatively affordable BEV offerings.

What are your thoughts on Norway’s EV transition? Please join in the discussion below.

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Sweden’s plugin electric vehicle share reached 55.7% of the auto market in April, up from 48.2% year on year (YoY). Full electrics grew share strongly, whilst plugin hybrids lost share slightly. Overall auto market volume was 20,588 units, down some 6% YoY, and down 35% from pre-2020 seasonal norms. The bestselling full electric vehicle was the Volvo XC40.

 

April’s combined plugin result of 55.7% comprised 33.7% full battery electrics (BEVs), and 22.1% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These shares compare, respectively, with YoY figures of 48.2%, 24.7%, and 23.4%. Thus, BEVs have grown share at a healthy clip, whilst PHEVs saw a slight trimming.

In terms of volumes, against a 6% shrinking overall market, BEVs increased YoY volume by some 28%, to 6,928 units. PHEVs lost just over 6% volume, thus shedding market share overall.

Whilst some other regions, less far along the EV transition, are seeing a rise in HEVs (plugless hybrids — a temporary transition technology), in Sweden (and Norway), this category is already becoming passé. Sweden’s HEV share dropped YoY from 11.5% to 8.3%.

Diesels also dropped share YoY, from 14.1% to 10.1%.

 

Bestselling BEVs

April’s bestselling BEV was the Volvo XC40, registering 695 units. This is the 5th time in the past 6 months the XC40 has taken the top spot.

The runners-up are the Volkswagen ID.4, and the Tesla Model Y, both close behind the Volvo.

 

 

Further down the rankings, the Toyota BZ4X — after 8 months of hiatus to resolve teething problems — has recently stepped up volume in Sweden, and hit a new high of 190 units in April (12th spot). The Lexus-brand variant of the BZ4X, called the Lexus RZ, also made its debut in Sweden in April, with a modest 12 units registered. It shares the same format and underpinnings as the BZ4X, but has greater motor power, is slightly larger and heavier (4805 mm long, and 2296 kg), with slightly less real-world range, and a higher price tag (from 67,000€ and up).

There was no other news about BEV newcomers. The Nio ET5, which first appeared last month with 6 units, is still just treading water for now, with 3 units in April.

Let’s look at the longer term sales charts:

 

 

Tesla significantly leads the trailing 3-month chart, with over 50% greater sales than the second placed Volvo XC40, thanks to a huge volume in March.

It is good to see a relatively affordable touring (or “estate”) BEV in 9th, the MG5. It seems this format may still be popular in some parts of Europe, though the MG5 is the only BEV example available so far.

The still-somewhat-new BMW iX1 (the brand’s most affordable BEV since the phasing out of the i3 in most markets) continues to make quiet but steady progress in Sweden. Since its November debut, it has already climbed into the top 20, and has recently posted monthly registration numbers between 120 and 150 units, with potential to climb further.

With few other new models arriving in volume, there are no major changes or large surprises in the charts since last month. Let’s keep an eye open for which, if any, new BEV models — in what volumes — might arrive later in the year and be able to shake up the rankings.

 

Outlook

The Swedish economy got a slight reprieve in Q1 with the Riksbank finding a (provisionally calculated) 0.3% growth YoY. This appears to point to a shallower and later economic downturn in 2023 than was previously expected. Despite this, consumer sentiment remains generally low, which will affect purchases in the auto market. This has already been mentioned by Mobility Sweden as the main reason for the 6.2% auto market shrinkage in April (and 9% decline YTD).

This climate combines with the November 2022 changes to the environmental bonus for plugin vehicles, which should start to be felt in Q3, once earlier backorders are worked through. We will have to see what happens to plugin  volume after that. As always, the long-term economics of plugins still has advantages, relative to plugless alternatives, at least for those consumers who are able to afford the higher initial entry-price.

What are your thoughts on Sweden’s EV transition and outlook? Please share your perspective in the comments below.

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France saw plugin electric vehicles take 21.1% share of the auto market in April, flat year-on-year, in a growing overall market. Full battery electrics, however, grew share, whilst plugin hybrids dropped share. Overall auto volume was 132,509 units, up some 22% YoY, though still far below pre-2020 seasonal norms (~183,000). The bestselling plugin was the Dacia Spring.

 

April’s combined plugin result of 21.1% comprised full battery electrics (BEVs) at 12.9%, and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 8.2%. These compare with respective YoY figures of 21.1%, 11.7%, and 9.4%. We can see that BEVs are still growing decently, whilst PHEVs are sliding.

In volume terms, against an overall market up 22%, BEV volume grew almost 35% YoY, to 17,112 units. PHEVs only grew volume by 6% YoY (to 10,878 units), trailing broader market growth, and thus losing share.

Diesel share shrank to a new record low of 10.5% (from 15.8% YoY). Petrol share however took up some of the slack, and grew to 40.4%, the highest level seen since July 2021! This is temporary, the clear long-term trend remains declining combustion-only share over time.

 

Bestselling BEVs

After Tesla’s record French volume push in March, other brands had a chance to shine in April. The diminutive Dacia Spring was back on top, with 2,432 units, followed by the Peugeot 208 in second, and the Fiat 500 in third.

 

 

There were no newcomers in the top 20, and most models saw a decline in sales volume compared to the end-of-quarter push in March. In fact, the only notable newcomer to the French market was the BYD Atto 3, with just 5 initial units for sampling. We will have to wait till later in the year for new models to be launched in volume.

 

Let’s now look at the trailing 3 months:

 

Here we find most of the usual faces, with some mild shuffling of ranking. The Tesla Model Y remains on top, largely thanks to its March performance. The Renault Megane has dropped off slightly in rank (and volume), from second to fifth, though mainly because the limited factory production is no longer just concentrated in the domestic market, but is now being shared across several European markets.

The movements in model ranking are modest and unremarkable, so I will skip the snakes-and-ladders analysis this time around.

That the Tesla Model Y is now dominating the French BEV market, remains remarkable. This is 1.5x to 2x the price of most other BEV models in the top 10, and almost 3x the price of traditionally popular vehicles. This goes to show the importance of — not just offering a compelling value BEV (as others in the top 20 are also, e.g. the MG4) — but producing it in large enough volume to meet all potential demand and avoid long wait queues.

 

Outlook

The French economy is not in a great place, but better than many of its neighbours. Inflation  remains high but somewhat stable at just under 6%. Economic activity remains sluggish, with just 0.6% growth forecast for 2023.

The auto market, with 22% YoY growth in April, is thus outperforming other areas of the economy and is a relative bright spot. Much of this is of course a rebound from the constrained auto supply chains of the past year or two. After the backlog of delayed orders is worked through, let’s look again at the auto market trend to see how it compares with the broader economy.

For those vehicle owners able to access time-of-use electricity rates, and able to afford the up-front price premium of a plugin vehicle, they remain better long-term value propositions than combustion alternatives. Continued growth in plugin market share will depend on energy price trends and consumer purchasing power — both shaped by the broader economic conditions.

What are your thoughts on France’s transition to EVs? Please jump in to the conversation below.

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Germany’s plugin electric vehicles took 21.6% of the auto market in March, down from 25.6% year on year. BEV grew share slightly, but PHEVs lost half their share YoY, due to recent policy changes. Overall auto volume was 281,361 units, up over 16% YoY, but still well down from pre-2020 seasonal norms.

March’s combined plugin share of 21.6% comprised 15.7% full electrics (BEVs), and 6.0% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These shares compare with corresponding YoY figures of 25.6%, 14.3%, and 11.3%.

Recall that we are still in the hangover phase of the significant plugin incentive cuts that came in on January 1st (see reports from December and January for more detail). Despite this, in volume terms, BEVs saw decent YoY growth, slightly ahead of the overall market, growing sales 28% to 44,125 units. This was close to the 3rd highest volume ever (trailing the past two Decembers).

PHEVs — which lost the entire Umweltbonus incentive from January 1st — saw sales hit harder, thus the almost halving of share YoY. Their volume was down some 38% YoY, to 16,776 units.

Diesel share continued its steady decline, but petrol share actually rose YoY, from 34.9% to 36.7%. Obviously this growth in petrol share is temporary, related to the plugin incentive hangover and a resettling of the market.

As we also saw in the UK market, plugless hybrids are doing well in Germany — essentially converting sales of combustion-only vehicles over to this marginally improved technology. They are only a temporary waypoint on the road to full electric vehicles.

 

Best selling BEVs

With local Brandenburg production now ramping past 22,000 units per month, the Tesla Model Y was yet again the bestselling BEV in March. In second place was the Volkswagen ID.4/5, and in third was the ID.3.

Few of the top 20 BEVs turned up in particularly outstanding volumes, compared to their own previous averages. Only the MG4 put in a personal best performance, with 1,389 units delivered, near to twice its previous high (February).

There were a few newcomer BEV models visible further down the sales charts. The Smart “#1”, having first delivered in noticeable volume in December, had personal-best deliveries of 313 units in March.

The Ora Funky Cat saw its first volume month, with 162 units. Nio brand delivered 121 units across all models in March (up from just 13 units previously), mostly the ET5 and EL7, and a few ET7. It will be interesting to see if Nio can compete against the Germany premium brands in their home market.

Finally, Opel registered the first 42 units of the new Astra in Germany. It’s not yet clear if these are dealer demonstration units, or whether they are in fact end-customer deliveries. Either way, the doors have opened, and it is good to see Stellantis’ next generation platform — supporting both hatchback and touring body styles — now hitting the streets in Europe.

Now let’s look back at the trailing 3 month performances, bearing in mind that the market is still unsettled following the recent incentive changes:

The Tesla Model Y overwhelms all others, with volume close to the next 3 BEVs combined (including its own sibling, the Model 3). With local production continuing to grow, it is hard to see the Model Y’s dominance diminishing anytime soon.

The Model Y now starts at just under €45,000 in Germany, before incentives, so continues to remain attractive despite the recent trimming of the government bonus. Most other BEVs in the top 20 (except the MG4, and BMW iX1) have lost significant volume since Q4 2022 (before the incentive trim). The Model Y has increased delivery volume by 20% over the period, and gapped all its nearest rivals.

Since we are still in the unsettled and unrepresentative BEV market conditions, following the recent incentive changes, I’m not going to analyse the movements in ranking since Q4 in any greater detail. Suffice it to say that the Model Y, MG4 and BMW iX1 are all climbing the ranks, whilst others just tread water until the market resettles.

 

Outlook

The auto market’s YoY growth in March, which the KBA attributes to improving supply chain constraints, was a welcome talking point for the broader German economy. It is now forecast that the economy may be able to avoid recession through 2023, and instead may see fractional growth (0.2% to 0.3%, depending who you ask).

Inflation remains high but softening (7.4% from 8.7% recently), much of it due to increased energy and food prices. Plugin vehicle owners who have access to cheap overnight electricity rates are still seeing good savings on total cost of ownership compared to combustion vehicles. This being the case, and with model diversity and infrastructure density improving, we can expect demand for plugins to remain high relative to plugless vehicles, in the medium term.

In the short term, however, the disjuncture from the January 1st incentive changes has not yet settled, and we should expect modest growth for plugins until sometime in the summer when the trends will stabilise.

What are your thoughts on Germany’s EV transition? Please jump into the discussion below.

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The UK saw plugin electric vehicles take 22.4% of the auto market in March, down from 22.7% year on year. BEVs saw fractional market share growth YoY, and a new volume record, whilst PHEVs saw a slight decline. Combustion-only powertrains lost 2.5% share YoY. Overall auto volume was 287,825 units, up some 18% YoY, though still some 19% down from March 2019 levels. The Tesla Model Y was the UK’s overall best selling auto in March.

March’s combined plugin share of 22.4% comprised 16.2% full electrics (BEVs), and 6.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These shares compare with YoY figures of 22.7%, 16.1%, and 6.6%.

In terms of volumes, against a backdrop of 18.2% overall auto sales growth YoY, BEVs stayed just ahead of the broader market, with 18.6% growth (to 46,626 units). This was a new record for BEV volume in the UK (from 42,284 in December ’22). PHEVs slackened, with just 11.8% growth (to 17,933 units), thus denting the overall plugin share, YoY.

Hybrids (HEVs) and mild hybrids continued to see strong growth in the UK, with 32.3% combined share of the overall market (from 29.6% YoY). This category, however, is a temporary transition technology away from combustion-only, but will itself give way to plugins, and eventually to almost entirely BEVs. HEVs and mild-hybrids are offered by manufacturers as a quick and relatively cheap way (especially in the case of mild hybrids) to improve fleet emissions, compared to ICE-only vehicles.

HEVs can save around 25% fuel use over ICE-only, whereas for mild hybrids, the figure is around 10% to 15% (EPA estimates, depends heavily on typical driving cycle). Whilst these are welcome improvements over ICE-only — especially when introduced in 1997 — they are not the final answer in a world where compelling BEVs now exist, and their technology and affordability is rapidly improving, along with densifying charging networks.

Diesels continued to slide, taking just 3.8% of the market (only December ’22 was lower), from 5.6% YoY. Their trajectory in the chart below suggests that they may dwindle to around 1% by 2025. This is roughly where they are in Norway today.

 

 

Leading BEV Brands

Tesla had yet another knock-out performance from the Model Y in the UK in March. It was the UK’s best selling vehicle (of any kind) for the month, with 8,123 units registered (just below its December all-time record).

For the Model Y, this represented a 26% YoY volume boost. However, Model 3 shrank sales YoY, such that combined Tesla volumes were down. Likely this was less to do with demand softening, and more to do with the variable logistics of producing and supplying batches of right-hand drive variants for the UK market.

Second placed brand was MG, now offering 3 great value BEVs in the UK market (when will the Marvel R join them?), of which the MG4 was the second best seller after the Model Y. Audi rounded out the top three spots.

 

In terms of movements in rank, MG’s climb to 2nd spot came off the back of a slow February, when it was only in 17th place. Again, this change results from logistics shuffling, rather than reflecting any abrupt demand fluctuations. March appears to have been the brand’s highest ever BEV volume in the UK market (over 4,000 units).

Outside the top 20, BYD made its first measurable deliveries of the Atto 3 (approximately 34 units). Being a similar size and shape to the very popular Kia Niro, the Atto 3 has every chance of eventual success in the UK market.

Stellantis brands, having had a slow January and February, returned to better form in March, with Citroën especially returning to volumes not seen since Spring 2022 (over 500 units), almost all of them the e-C4 compact SUV.

It will be interesting to see the popularity of the Stellantis’ incoming Opel (Vauxhall) Astra, and platform-sibling Peugeot e-308, in the UK market. These are expected to start to arrive from June onwards. Stellantis are one of the few legacy auto groups which have been offering “relatively” affordable BEVs, but whose WLTP range up until now has been a bit modest for some consumers.

The Astra and e-308 will finally offer a somewhat larger battery with WLTP range of over 250 miles (> 400 km). This larger battery will then later make its way into updated versions of the existing Stellantis BEVs (e-208, Corsa-e, e-C4, etc).

Let’s now review the trailing 3-month brand charts:

 

Here Tesla remains firmly in the lead, taking over 18% of the UK BEV market in Q1. The remaining ranks are more closely distributed, with MG and Audi in 2nd and 3rd spots.

In terms of the changes since Q4 2022, Tesla has kept its lead, though its market share shrank from the previous 25.5%. Here are the main gainers compared to Q4:

• MG up from 4th to 2nd
• Audi up from 6th to 3th
• Kia up from 14th to 5th
• Peugeot up from 16th to 12th
• Citroen up from 21st to 18th

On the flip side, these brands slid since Q4:

• BMW down from 2nd to 6th
• Nissan down from 5th to 14th
• Renault down from 9th to 19th

Let’s now briefly review the manufacturing group performance in Q1:

 

Here Volkswagen Group and Tesla swapped places compared to Q4, with the former gaining 2% share, and the latter losing 7%.

Hyundai climbed from 6th to 3rd, and Stellantis climbed from 8th to 4th. Geely stayed in place in 5th, as did SAIC in 7th. BMW, however, slid from 3rd in Q4, to 6th in Q1.

Renault-Nissan had the biggest drop, from 4th in Q4 (with 9.3% share), to 9th in Q1 (3.8% share).

 

Outlook

The UK economy continues in the doldrums, with forecasters split over whether it will show mild recession this year, or simply zero growth. The latest inflation rate figures show a slight rise to 10.4%, though business confidence has somewhat improved recently.

The auto industry body, the SMMT, is forecasting the auto market to be one of the few prospective growth stories of the coming year.  CEO Mike Hawes said: “With eight consecutive months of growth, the automotive industry is recovering, bucking wider trends and supporting economic growth. The best [volume] month ever for zero emission vehicles is reflective of increased consumer choice and improved availability but if EV market ambitions – and regulation – are to be met, infrastructure investment must catch up.”

For owners who can access time-of-use electricity tariffs, especially cheaper overnight rates when plugged in at home, BEVs still have much lower total cost of ownership than ICE vehicles. We can thus expect demand for them to continue to steadily climb over time — their actual rate of market share growth will likely be more constrained by supply than demand.

What are your thoughts on the UK’s transition to electric vehicles? Jump in below to join the discussion.

The post Tesla Model Y wins UK bestseller spot in March first appeared on 🔋PushEVs.

Norway’s plugin electric vehicles took 91.1% share of the auto market in March, down from 91.9% year on year. The slight dent in share came from a drop in plugin hybrid volume, against overall market growth. Overall auto volume was 19,366 units, up some 19% YoY, and the highest March sales since at least 2016 (though compensating from a hangover earlier in Q1).

The Tesla Model Y broke all records, with the highest monthly sales of any vehicle in Norway’s history, with 7,445 units registered, and over 38% of the entire auto market.

 

March’s combined plugin result of 91.1% comprised 86.8% full electrics (BEVs), and 4.3% plugin hybrids. Their respective shares a year ago were 91.9%, 86.1%, and 5.8%.

Plugless hybrids (HEVs) did better than PHEVs, growing their share from a year ago (6.1% from 2.7%). This is likely a temporary blip, the result of a resettling of the market following regulatory changes that came in on January 1st. Overall, HEVs have been on a long term decline since mid 2020.

Petrol-only vehicles saw their lowest share in modern history, taking just 1% of the market. Even adding in diesel-only vehicles, the combined ICE-only share was at a record low of 2.7%, from 5.3% YoY.

 

Norway’s Best Selling BEVs

The Tesla Model Y broke all records in March, with the OFV recording 7,445 units registered. This even exceeds the shock result of the Tesla Model 3 from March 2019 (5,315 units), in both volume, and in market share. The Model Y alone took over 38% of Norway’s new passenger auto registrations in March.

To give a sense of the scale of the Model Y’s achievement – consider that it sold almost the same volume as the rest of the top 20 BEVs combined!

Note that the performance of these other BEVs was not weak in absolute terms, it was roughly in line with March 2022. In the immediate shadow of the Tesla were the runners up, the Toyota BZ4X (repeating its 2nd place, first achieved in February), and the Volvo XC40, in third.

[Clarification: the unit numbers we use for our ranking charts use a different counting methodology from the OFV, so model totals differ slightly, typically within 1%].

 

 

The Volvo XC40 jumped ahead of the Volkswagen ID.4, and ID.3, pushing them down to 4th and 5th spots, respectively. The ID. Buzz saw its highest volume since December, and took 6th.

In other notable news, further back in the pack, the Peugeot 208 had its highest ever monthly volume (previous best was way back in August 2020), registering 330 units, and taking 11th spot. A similar personal best was gained by its slightly lower volume sibling, the Opel Corsa, just outside the top 20.

In terms of the progress of newer models: the Nissan Ariya (which debuted in August ’22) saw its highest ever monthly volumes (226 units), and climbed to 15th spot. The new Hyundai Ioniq 6 sedan build upon its debut last month, with a decent climb to 198 units, and 19th spot.

Finally, the Nio ET5 made its Norway debut in March, registering a healthy 41 initial units (for info on this new model, see my Sweden report).

Let’s now step back for the broader view:

Thanks to the blowout performance in March, even over a 3 month timeline, the Tesla Model Y is heavily dominant!

The other notable climbs are by relative newcomers. After two decent months in Norway, the Toyota BZ4X — having suffered plenty of initial snafus — is now doing well, and has consolidated 2nd place, from 22nd in Q4 last year.

This seems to be a result of Toyota strongly tilting its supply towards Norway, more than any other country (even than the much larger German BEV market), and catching up on a long (delayed) queue of back-orders. We will have to see how it performs across Europe as a whole (as well as in other regions).

Another great climb has been seen for the new ID. Buzz, going from 18th in Q4, to 6th in Q1. Finally, another relative newcomer, the BMW iX1, has seen great progress, from its very first deliveries in December, climbing to 16th rank in Q1.

After the untimely demise of the BMW i3, the iX1 is the most affordable BMW BEV on offer, and we should expect it to be the brand’s bestseller over the medium term. For those keeping records, the iX1 a is mid sized SUV (almost the same length as the VW ID.4).

Here’s a brief summary of the largest top 20 movers since Q4:

Climbers:

• Toyota BZ4x up from 22nd to 2nd !!!
• VW ID.3 up from 14th to 5th
• VW ID. Buzz up from 18th to 6th
• Tesla Model 3 up from 52nd to 8th
• Hyundai Kona up from 30th to 13th
• Peugeot e-2008 up from 40th to 14th
• Peugeot e-208 up from 48th to 15th
• BMW iX1 up from 34th to 16th
• Nissan Ariya up from 32nd to 20th

Sliders:

• Skoda Enyaq down from 4th to 7th
• BMW iX down from 5th to 58th
• BMW i4 down from 6th to 21st
• Volvo C40 down from 7th to 18th
• Mercedes EQC down from 8th to 48th
• Polestar 2 down from 9th to 25th
• Audi Q8 e-tron down from 10th to 19th
• Hyundai Ioniq 5 down from 12th to 23rd

In a smaller market like Norway, a month or two of deliveries made (or paused) can be the equivalent of an on-or-off tap in influencing a model’s short term ranking. It doesn’t necessarily reflect the longer term relative demand for a model.

 

Outlook

Norway’s economy is escaping some of the worst of the fate of other European neighbours. We saw in yesterday’s report that neighbouring Sweden is now in an inflationary recession (“stagflation”). Norway has escaped this, partly due to its substantial fossil fuel exports (giving its current account a record surplus in 2022), against the backdrop of European energy supply disruption.

According to a recent forecast from the country’s central bank, Norges Bank, the economy is on track for modest 1.1% growth in 2023. Since energy and food are internationally traded, Norwegian consumer prices have also been exposed to Europe’s inflationary trends in recent months, despite the country’s overall balance of trade benefiting overall from the higher energy prices (via exports).

Much of the energy price inflation that Norwegian consumers are exposed to has been offset by an electricity subsidy scheme funded by the government (and its ballooning national surplus). So overall, the long term running cost advantages of plugin vehicles remain attractive, relative to ICE vehicles.

This being the case, combined with Norway being a relatively small auto market in terms of the volume to be satiated, we can expect the market share of plugin vehicles, especially BEVs, to continue the steady upward climb. The past 6 months have seen BEVs take more than 83% of auto sales. For  BEV share to consistently reach into the 90% range, may require decent supply of a variety of compelling small, affordable models (BYD dolphin anyone?) These will be needed to displace the stubbornly continuing sales of HEV autos, like the Toyota Yaris, and Toyota Corolla (which together sold almost 1,000 units in March).

What are your thoughts on Norway’s EV transition and its likely end-game? Please jump in to the discussion below.

The post Tesla Model Y continues to lead auto sales in Norway first appeared on 🔋PushEVs.

Sweden’s plugin electric vehicles took almost 60% of the auto market in March, up from 55.6% year on year. BEVs alone took 41.6% of the market, up from 31.8% YoY. Overall auto market volume was 30,261 units, up some 5% YoY, though still below historical seasonal norms. The Tesla Model Y was the overall best selling vehicle of any kind, taking 10.6% of all passenger auto sales!

 

March’s combined plugin share of 59.9% comprised 41.6% full electrics (BEVs), and 18.3% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These shares compare YoY with 55.6%, 31.8%, and 23.7%, respectively.

It terms of volumes, BEVs were up nearly 38% YoY, while PHEVs were down by some 19%. Petrol-only vehicles, and HEVs, were essentially flat YoY, and diesels were down by over a third.

Diesel share of the market reached a near record low of 7.6% (only December ’22 was lower, at 6.7%). Petrol share looks set to regularly slide under 20% in Q3 or Q4 this year. Excepting the potential of anomalous logistics events, it is unlikely that non-plugins will ever get near to 50% share of the market again (and soon, 40% will be a stretch).

 

 

Sweden’s Best Selling BEVs

Tesla’s Model Y was (by far) the best selling BEV in March, and in fact the best selling of any auto, with a massive 3,202 units. This was 10.6% of the entire passenger auto market! Only the Volvo XC40 BEV has come close to this performance, taking 7.4% of the auto market last December.

This time around, the XC40 had to settle for second, with 1,255 units, far behind the Tesla. The Volkswagen ID.4 came in third (898 units).

 

 

There were no big surprises in the top 20, though let’s give a shout out to the good value MG5 for setting its volume record (413 units) and grabbing 6th spot.

Outside the top 20, a newcomer BEV model, the Nio ET5, showed its face for the first time with an initial 6 units registered. The ET5 is a premium priced, mid sized sedan, with long range, battery swapping, and with a tech focus. For comparison, its monthly lease cost is about 10% more than the Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor, and is around 10cm longer in size, with similar performance.

At this price point, the Nio will obviously remain a niche vehicle, but may push innovation in this upper end of the market, and may perhaps get Nio closer to releasing more affordable future vehicles.

Let’s look at the 3-month view:

 

 

The Tesla Model Y has now jumped up into first place, from 4th as recently as last quarter. The former leader, the Volvo XC40, has been displaced, now in 2nd, and the VW ID.4 has likewise been shuffled down a spot, into 3rd.

Let’s summarize the main climbers compared to the previous (October-to-December) period:

• Tesla Model Y up from 4th to 1st
• Kia EV6 up from 9th to 4th
• Tesla Model 3 recovering from 37th to 5th
• MG5 up from 18th to 9th
• BMW i4 up from 23rd to 12th

These models were amongst those dropping back:

• Volvo C40 fell from 3rd to 7th
• Polestar 2 fell from 5th to 13th
• Nissan Leaf fell from 8th to 14th

With Tesla’s local European production now passing 22,000 units per month (and still climbing), and with Shanghai production still supplementing that, the Model Y is now looking ever harder to displace from the BEV lead across almost all European markets.

In markets already well down the path of the EV transition, the Model Y has a decent chance to be the overall best selling vehicle. This despite its price tag of €45,000 to €48,000, for the entry variant!

 

Outlook

Sweden’s auto industry organization, Mobility Sweden, has recently downgraded its overall auto sales forecast for 2023, from 290,000 down to 265,000 units. It cites the overall economic conditions for consumers, as well as the cancellation of plugin incentives in November 2022.

“In recent times, the Swedes have been hit by higher interest rates, inflation and generally increased living costs” said CEO Mattias Bergman (Machine Translation).

The inflation rate stands at 12% (and is still on an upward trend), whilst house prices are falling, and the economy has recently been forecast to recess by 0.6% this year.

Obviously this will put a brake on consumer orders for new autos, potentially including BEVs. Since there is a large order backlog of autos, and especially BEVs, it may only be in late Q3 that any downturn in sales becomes clear, so we will have to wait and see.

As usual, those who have enough upfront capital to pay the premium for a plugin are then able to access better overall value in total costs of ownership, due largely to energy cost savings. Depending on how hard consumer spending gets hit, we should expect the relative demand for plugins, especially BEVs, to remain stronger than that of non-plugins, throughout much of 2023.

What are your thoughts on Sweden’s EV transition? Please jump in to the discussion below.

The post Tesla Model Y strengthens its position in Sweden first appeared on 🔋PushEVs.

France saw record high plugin electric vehicle share in March, at 25.4%, up from 21.4% year on year. BEVs alone took 16.8% share, a new record. Overall auto volumes were 182,712 units, up some 24% year on year, though still well off the pre-2020 seasonal average (~230,000 units). The Tesla Model Y was the best selling BEV, and 4th highest selling auto overall.

 

 

March’s combined plugin result of 25.4% share comprised 16.8% full electrics (BEVs), and 8.6% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These figures compare YoY with shares of 21.4%, 13.5%, and 7.9%, respectively.

In volume terms, with the overall auto market up over 24% YoY, all powertrains saw some volume growth except for diesel (down 5.7% YoY to 19,865 units). BEVs saw record volume of 30,636 units (up over 54% YoY), with PHEVs at a near record 15,717 units (up 34%).

Combined traditional combustion-only powertrains managed to cling on to 50% share of the market, perhaps for the last time. Diesel alone was down to a record low of 10.9% share in March (from 14.3% YoY).

 

 

France’s Best Selling BEVs

Tesla’s Model Y took the top spot in March, with 6,455 units. The runners up were the Dacia Spring (3,481 units) and Peugeot e-208 (3,256 units).

The Model Y was also the 4th best selling auto overall (behind the Peugeot 208, Renault Clio, and Citroen C3). Along with 2,008 units of the Tesla Model 3 (5th spot), this was Tesla’s best ever monthly volume in France.

For once, we have fairly full BEV model sales data for March (and for 2023 YTD) from AAA Data, and so we can present a top 20 chart:

 

With Tesla’s Berlin Gigafactory now ramping production past 22,000 units per month (all for the European market), we can expect the Model Y to be a regular showing at or near France’s top spot.

The other models populating the top 10 are — as usual — mostly relatively affordable compact or small vehicles like the Fiat 500, Renault Megane, MG4, Renault Zoe and Renault Twingo.

Outside the top 20, newer faces that we can detect for the first time in the March data include the Opel Astra, the BYD Atto 3, and Genesis G80. The latter two each only registered a single unit, they will climb from here.

The Opel Astra has already registered 66 units year-to-date (likely mostly demonstration units), and should become one of Stellantis’ high volume sellers, alongside its platform sibling, the upcoming Peugeot e-308. Each of these new models will offer both hatchback, and tourer/estate formats.

Let’s look at the longer term sales trends:

 

There have been a few changes since 3 months ago (October-to-December). Whereas previously the Tesla Model 3 had been in the lead, the Model Y has now taken the top spot (from 3rd previously), and the older sibling has dropped to 6th (with under half the previous volume).

Meanwhile, the Dacia Spring, Peugeot e-208, and Fiat 500 have also climbed, while the Renault Megane has fallen. Here’s the summary of the main movers in the top ranks, compared to 3 months prior:

The main climbers:

• Tesla Model Y up from #3 to #1
• Dacia Spring up from #4 to #2
• Peugeot 208 up from #5 to #3
• Fiat 500 up from #6 to #4
• MG4 up from #13 to #7
• Renault ZOE up from #12 to #8

The following models lost position:

• Tesla Model 3 down from #1 to #6
• Renault Megane down from #2 to #5
• Volkswagen ID.3 down from #7 to #13
• Mini Cooper down from #8 to #14

The Tesla Model Y is now looking unassailable (and not just in France, but across Europe, and the wider world). Why? Mainly because it is both a compelling offering (with access to Tesla’s reliable charging network) and is being produced in very high volume. There are plenty of other compelling (and good value) BEVs on the market – in France the MG4 especially comes to mind – but almost none are being produced in anything close to the Model Y’s volume.

 

Outlook

March saw the 7th consecutive month of YoY auto volume recovery in France, in part due to supply chain constraints lifting. Amongst growing overall auto supply, it’s good to see BEVs making more progress than any other powertrain, and breaking new ground in monthly sales volume (higher even than the recent December peak).

The French National Bank’s deputy governor recently predicted modest (0.6%) overall economic growth this year, and 1.2% next year. Lacklustre, to be sure, but better than many of France’s neighbours who face outright recession this year. Inflation is coming under control (5.6% from 6.3% previously). Ongoing large popular protests across the country, however, may yet throw a spanner in the works of the economy in 2023, including perhaps the auto industry.

For those still able to access cheap time-of-use discount rates for electricity, the relative running costs of plugins remain very attractive, against the prospect of now rising road-fuel prices. This long term total-cost-of-ownership advantage is still driving demand for plugins relative to ICE autos, and will continue to do so. We can thus expect to see plugin market share continue to grow throughout 2023, despite what might happen to over auto volumes.

What are your thoughts on France’s EV transition and outlook? Please join in the discussion in the comments section below.

The post French EV market record high in March first appeared on 🔋PushEVs.